nrad Carlberg
Excel® Sales Forecasting For Dummies®
Excel® Sales Forecasting For Dummies®, 2nd Edition
Published by: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, www.wiley.com
Copyright © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Published simultaneously in Canada
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2016942855
ISBN: 978-1-119-29142-8
ISBN 978-1-119-29143-5 (ePub); ISBN 978-1-119-29144-2 (ePDF)
Introduction
You wouldn’t have pulled this book off the shelf if you didn’t need to forecast sales. And I’m sure that you’re not Nostradamus. Your office isn’t filled with the smell of incense and it’s not your job to predict the date that the world will come to an end.
But someone – perhaps you – wants you to forecast sales, and you find out how to do that here, using the best general-purpose analysis program around, Microsoft Excel.
This book concentrates on using numbers to forecast sales. If you’re a salesperson, or a sales manager, or someone yet higher up the org chart, you’ve run into forecasts that are based not on numbers but on guesses, sales quotas, wishful thinking, and Scotch.
I get away from that kind of thing here. I use numbers instead. Fortunately, you don’t need to be a math major to use Excel for your forecasting. Excel has a passel of tools that will do it on your behalf. Some of them are even easy to use, as you’ll see.
That said, it’s not all about numbers. You still need to understand your products, your company, and your market before you can make a sensible sales forecast, and I have to trust you on that. I hope I can. I think I can. Otherwise, start with Part 1, which talks about the context for a forecast.
You can hop around the chapters in this book, as you can in all books that feature the guy with a pool ball rack for a head. There are three basic approaches to forecasting with numbers – moving averages, smoothing, and regression – and you really don’t have to know much about one to understand another. It helps to know all three, but you don’t really need to.
The phrase foolish assumptions is, of course, redundant. But here are the assumptions I’m making:
❯❯ I’m assuming that you know the basics of how to use Excel. Entering numbers into a worksheet, like numbers that show how much you sold in August 2015; entering formulas in worksheet cells; saving workbooks; using menus; that sort of thing.
If you haven’t ever used Excel before, don’t start here. Do buy this book, but also buy Excel 2013 For Dummies by Greg Harvey (published by Wiley), and dip into that one first.
❯❯ I’m assuming that you have access to information on your company’s sales history, and the more the better. The only way to forecast what’s about to happen is to know what’s happened earlier. Doesn’t really matter where that information is – it can be in a database, or in an Excel workbook, or even in a simple text file. As long as you can get your hands on it, you can make a forecast. And I talk about how you can get Excel’s “hands” on it.
❯❯ I’m assuming you don’t have a phobia about numbers. You don’t have to be some kind of egghead to make good forecasts. But you can’t be afraid of numbers, and I really doubt that you are. Except maybe your quarterly sales quota.
❯❯ Of course, I’m also assuming you have Excel on your computer. I’m not assuming you have the latest version. But the Excel user interface changed so drastically in 2007 that I have to assume your version uses the Ribbon rather than the original menu structure. Even so, very little of the information in this book has to do with the user interface. Mostly, it’s about setting up your sales history, letting yourself be guided by Excel’s Data Analysis add-in, and finally working with worksheet formulas, charts, and other tools to get where you’re headed on your own.
In the margins of this book, you find icons – little pictures that are designed to draw your attention to particular kinds of information. Here’s what the icons mean:
