PRAISE FOR THE PREVIOUS EDITION OF DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS:
“Definitely a must for politicians, activists, and others who generate or use statistics, but especially for those who want to think for themselves rather than take as gospel every statistic presented to them.”
—New Scientist
“There’s a 73 percent chance that the University of Delaware prof has got our number.”
—San Diego Union-Tribune
“Best is our leading authority on social problems today. His detective work in exposing the spurious use of statistics is essential to constructive social science. No one who speaks for the public welfare can ignore his powerful work.”
—Jonathan B. Imber, Editor-in-Chief, Society
“Joel Best is at it again. In Damned Lies and Statistics, he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted “facts” and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny.”
—Patricia Adler, author of Peer Power
“In our era, numbers are as much a staple of political debates as stories. And just as stories so often turn into fables, so Best shows that we often believe the most implausible of numbers—to the detriment of us all.”
Peter Reuter, coauthor of Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times and Places
“Whether we like them or not, we have to live with statistics, and Damned Lies and Statistics offers a useful guide for engaging with their troublesome world. Despite the temptation to be cynical, the author of this timely and excellent work cautions the reader against reacting in such a way to statistics. What we are offered is an approach that helps us to work out the real story behind those numbers.”
—The Independent
“Damned Lies and Statistics is highly entertaining as well as instructive. Best’s book shows how some of those big numbers indicating big social problems were created in the first place and instructs the reader (and reporter) how to be on guard against such gross manipulation. And it doesn’t take an understanding of advanced mathematics to do so thanks to this book, which ought to be required reading in every newsroom in the country.”
—Washington Times
“The narrative flows easily, and all the points are driven home with engaging examples from real life. I found Best’s book a delight. Always engaging, it is accessible to a lay reader, yet will reward the expert; the examples it gives could enrich both a primary schoolroom and a university lecture hall.”
—Nature
“[An] absolutely fascinating and sobering quest into the fantastic differences between the world as it is and the world as it is portrayed in the statistics the media use. This book is simply a must.”
—Nachman Ben-Yehuda, author of The Masada Myth
DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS
DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS
Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists
UPDATED EDITION
Joel Best
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS
Berkeley Los Angeles London
University of California Press, one of the most distinguished university presses in the United States, enriches lives around the world by advancing scholarship in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences. Its activities are supported by the UC Press Foundation and by philanthropic contributions from individuals and institutions. For more information, visit www.ucpress.edu.
University of California Press
Berkeley and Los Angeles, California
University of California Press, Ltd.
London, England
© 2001, 2012 by
The Regents of the University of California
ISBN 978-0-520-27470-9
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS
CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Best, Joel.
Damned lies and statistics : untangling numbers from the media, politicians, and activists / Joel Best.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-520-21978-6 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Sociology—Statistical methods. 2. Social problems—Statistical methods. 3. Social indicators. I. Title.
HM535.B47 2001
303.3'8—dc21 00-064910
Printed in the United States of America
18 17 16 15 14 13 12
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
In keeping with a commitment to support environmentally responsible and sustainable printing practices, UC Press has printed this book on Rolland Enviro100, a 100% post-consumer fiber paper that is FSC certified, deinked, processed chlorine-free, and manufactured with renewable biogas energy. It is acid-free and EcoLogo certified.
For Kathe Lowney
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION The Worst Social Statistic Ever
1 THE IMPORTANCE OF SOCIAL STATISTICS
2 SOFT FACTS Sources of Bad Statistics
3 MUTANT STATISTICS Methods for Mangling Numbers
4 APPLES AND ORANGES Inappropriate Comparisons
5 STAT WARS Conflicts over Social Statistics
6 THINKING ABOUT SOCIAL STATISTICS The Critical Approach
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Philip Jenkins and I originally planned to write this book together. Although Philip had too many other projects to find the time to work on this one as well, he generously suggested several examples, pointed me toward sources, and commented on drafts. I also benefited from valuable comments by Margaret Andersen, Ronet Bachman, Loy Bilderback, Robert Broadhead, James A. Holstein, Timothy Kubal, Donileen R. Loseke, David F. Luckenbill,