RETURN TO WINTER
PRAISE FOR RETURN TO WINTER, PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED AS THE RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS
“The Russia-China Axis puts on the table what many have preferred to ignore or wish away, namely that our current foreign policy is causing grave and systemic harm to American interests all around the world. Schoen and Kaylan thoroughly document the problem and propose countermeasures that should jump-start a long-overdue national discussion of how America can right itself.”
John Bolton
Former United States ambassador to the United Nations
“Doug Schoen and Melik Kaylan’s book The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership is a wake-up call for the resurrection of American strategic, visionary leadership in the face of a growing global crisis for liberal democratic states. Schoen and Kaylan identify this adversarial global environment and present strategies for using elements of our national power to secure freedom on this complex 21st-century battlefield. This is a must-read for those who care about America’s place in the world and her security.”
Allen B. West
Lieutenant colonel, U.S. Army, retired (1982–2004) Member of 112th U.S. Congress (2011–2013)
“This book is a clarion call for American leaders to stand up against the burgeoning China-Russia axis that supports rogue states and values. Eloquently and with plentiful evidence, the authors splinter any illusion that these two rising powers share U.S. values or interests. They note that a new Cold War has erupted, and that we are the only ones not fighting. This is a must-read for anybody concerned about American foreign policy.”
Anders Åslund
Peterson Institute for International Economics Former economic adviser to the Russian government and author of How Capitalism Was Built
© 2014, 2015 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan
Preface © 2015 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter Books, 900 Broadway, Suite 601, New York, New York, 10003.
First American edition published in 2014 by Encounter Books,
an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc.,
a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation.
Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48–1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).
First paperback edition published in 2015.
THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGUED
THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:
Schoen, Douglas E., 1953–, author.
Return to winter: Russia, China, and the new cold war against America / by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan.
pages cm
Originally published in hardback in 2014 as: The Russia-China axis: the new cold war and America’s crisis of leadership.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-59403-844-0 (ebook)
1. United States—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. United States—Foreign relations administration—21st century. 3. National security—United States. 4. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—China. 5. China—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 6. World politics—2005–2015. I. Kaylan, Melik, 1962–, author. II. Title.
JZ1480.S358 2014
327.47051—dc23
2014002441
Contents
Authors’ Note
Foreword
Preface to the Paperback Edition
Introduction
CHAPTER 1 The New Terrain
CHAPTER 2 Rogue Regimes: How the Axis Uses Proxies to Win
CHAPTER 3 Cyber Security: The New Battlefield
CHAPTER 4 Military Supremacy: America’s Fading Edge
CHAPTER 5 Nuclear Security: They Build Up, We Build Down
CHAPTER 6 The Economic Contest: America on the Sidelines
CHAPTER 7 Intelligence Wars: Stealing America’s Secrets
CHAPTER 8 Propaganda Wars: Losing Ground in the Battle for Hearts and Minds
CHAPTER 9 Countermoves: Some Thoughts on Fighting Back
CONCLUSION Why America Must Wake Up
WHAT TO DO Russia
WHAT TO DO China
WHAT TO DO The New Axis
WHAT TO DO Rebuilding Alliances
Endnotes
Index
We wrote most of this book before the recent, unfolding events in Ukraine, as well as before further developments confirming the existence of a Russian-Chinese alliance. These events and others, in our view, only confirm the validity and relevance of our arguments, but we offer this foreword as a more current take on the state of affairs as we go to press (2014).
“Now Russia-China cooperation is advancing to a new stage of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. It would not be wrong to say that it has reached the highest level in all its centuries-long history.”
—VLADIMIR PUTIN1
“[Russia’s and China’s] enhanced partnership marks the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
—CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER2
“The Sino-Soviet rift that brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war in the ’60s has been healed rather dramatically.”
—STROBE TALBOTT3
“The echoes of the non-aggression pacts of the 1930s get louder in this age of American retreat.”
—WALL STREET JOURNAL4
“If not letting America have its own way is Mr. Obama’s objective, he is an unparalleled foreign-policy success.”
—JOHN BOLTON5
“This will be the biggest construction project in the world for the next four years, without exaggeration,” Vladimir Putin said in Shanghai in May 2014, as he raised a glass to drink a toast with Chinese president Xi Jinping.6
The two leaders were celebrating the signing of a 30-year, $400 billion natural-gas deal between