NIPCC vs. IPCC. S. Fred Singer

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      S. Fred Singer

      NIPCC vs. IPCC

      Addressing the Disparity between Climate Models and Observations:

      Testing the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming

      Interim Science Update

      Presented at Majorana Conference in Erice, Sicily

      August 2011

      This publication has been published with the kind support of the European Climate and Energy Institute.

       www.eike-klima-energie.eu

      © 2012 S. Fred Singer

      Publisher:

      TvR Medienverlag

      PF 110111, D-07722 Jena, Germany

       www.tvrgroup.de

      E-book edition,

      all rights reserved.

      ISBN 978-3-940431-35-6

      eBook-Herstellung und Auslieferung:

       readbox publishing, Dortmund

       www.readbox.net

       Contents

       Introduction

       1 – The Controversy about Attribution – Cause of Climate Change

       2 – Overcoming Chaotic Uncertainty of Climate Models

       3 – Hockeystick, Climategate, and 20^th-Century Climate Changes

       Land Data Problems

       Solar “Paradox”

       Ocean Data

       Proxy Data

       Solar Activity: A Major Cause of Decadal-Scale Climate Change

       A Historical Note

       Conclusions

       Key References

       About the Author

       Introduction

      This booklet discusses:

      (1) The central issue, the cause of global warming: Is it natural or is it manmade? We update the ongoing controversy. [This issue is of crucial importance for both climate science and for climate policy.]

      (2) The chaotic uncertainties of climate models and how to overcome them.

      (3) New thinking on Climategate, Hockeystick graph – and what we can say about the absence of post-1979 warming in the temperature data of the 20^th century. [Is the reported 1979-1997 warming real?]

      Conclusions:

      (1) We have given here a description of the controversy about the cause of climate change in the 20^th century. There is never any question about the observed increases in greenhouse (GH) gases or about their human cause. But we see no evidence at all that any of the tempe-rature changes are human-caused (anthropogenic). We certainly do not see any effect that can be traced to greenhouse gases, such as CO₂.

      (2) Climate models are known to be chaotic. None of current models have a sufficient number of runs to overcome chaotic uncertainty and therefore cannot be validated against observations.

      (3) The global surface warming for 1979-1997, reported by CRU-Hadley, NCDC-NOAA, and GISS-NASA, and used by the IPCC to support its claim of a GH-gas cause, is problematic. It is not seen by any other observations; we cite six independent methods, incl. radiosonde, satellite, and proxy data.