The Black Swan Problem. Håkan Jankensgård

about the collapse of the Soviet Union is wrong, Foreign Policy.

      11 11 The next outbreak? We're not ready, Bill Gates – YouTube.

      12 12 Camus, A., 1947. The Plague. Librairie Gallimard.

      13 13 I should be careful here. The Earth is under threat from rocks in space. While earthlings' primary tactic, if detected in time, is likely to be to try to nudge such an object on to another course using force. Perhaps, however, the response will also involve some attempt at sending people up there to deal with the problem on site. Let us leave all options on the table.

      14 14 This bias co‐exists with a negativity bias that has us putting undue focus on negative aspects and overreacting to them. For example, if you receive 100 great reviews for something you did, but only one negative, you are quite likely to spend the rest of the week ruminating over that negative review.

      15 15 Kahneman, D., 2011. Thinking fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux: New York.

      16 16 Meyer, R. and H. Kunreuther, 2017. The Ostricht Paradox: Why we underprepare for disaster. Wharton School Press.

      17 17 Plous, S., 1993. The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw‐Hill: New York.

      18 18 Garrett, B., 2020. Bunker: Building for the End Times. Scribner: New York.