the entire national economy. Subsequent events, including the Vietnam War, the combined high inflation and high unemployment of the 1970s, and the soaring fiscal and trade deficits of the 1980s, brought an embarrassed silence on the subject of fine-tuning.
Yet the fact remained that in the decades after World War II, the American state explicitly accepted the principle of a mixed economy and with it governmental responsibility for national economic well-being. This became evident starting with the Employment Act of 1946, an avowedly Keynesian measure, and it continued through all postwar presidencies – even that of Ronald Reagan, who, though no Keynesian, oversaw the most drastic (and hazardous) changes in fiscal policy since World War II. This overt acceptance of responsibility for economic performance epitomized the revolution in thinking about the connections among ideas, policies, and outcomes in the relationship between government and the economy.
Thomas K. McCraw
EXERCISES
Exercise 1. Answer the following questions:
1. Why there was no serious conflict between the welfare of the American people and that of its business units until 1880s? 2. Was the percentage of federal workers in the U.S. in the 19th century different from that in the late 20th century?
Exercise 2. Translate into English.
1. Даже в 19 веке уровень жизни в США, в целом, был выше, чем в Европе или Азии, по крайней мере для белых. 2. В 20 веке такой показатель, как валовый национальный продукт на душу населения, почти всегда сохранялся выше, чем в любой другой стране; редкое исключение составляли лишь малые высокоразвитые государства такие, как Швейцария и Дания, а также богатые нефтью государства такие, как Кувейт. 3. По всем другим показателям уровня жизни США превосходили и Германию, и Швейцарию. 4. В заключительные годы 19 века США стали единственной крупнейшей промышленно развитой державой, принявшей законодательство, явно расчитанное на свертывание могущества крупных корпораций. 5. Ни одна из этих стратегий не укоренилась в США.
Exercise 3. Subjects for discussion:
1. Can the Government influence in any way a nation’s economy?
2. Is Government’s interference in the country’s economy good or bad for the economy?
Text 3. Economic growth
By «economic growth» economists mean, in the first place, annual increases in the nation’s total output of goods and services – its national product. Gross national product (gnp) does not take into account the wastage of the machinery and other capital goods used in production. Net national product (nnp) makes allowances for capital replacements. Although nnp includes final consumer goods and services, it counts only net additions to capital goods. It is therefore a better measure of real growth than gnp. The reason only final consumer goods are included is that care must be taken to avoid double counting; the output of bread is included, but the output of wheat used to produce the bread is not.
The monetary equivalent of national product – national income – can be measured in various ways. One is to measure it as the «value added» by economic activity in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and so on. (Value added is calculated by summing output at producers’ prices and deducting the cost of the fuel and raw materials used to produce the output.) Another way is to measure it as the aggregate value of the final products of the economy. Still another is to total the incomes accruing to persons supplying different productive factors (such as wages and salaries, profits, rents). Each of these approaches yields the same total, provided a consistent scheme of valuation is used. The component detail of each, however, illuminates different facets of the process of production, distribution, and consumption of the nation’s output, and each serves a different use.
Changes in national income may be measured either in current prices – the prices that prevailed during the year in which the economic activity took place – or in constant prices – the prices of a given year, for example, those of 1929, which then serve as a base. In a study of financial developments or market trends the former is often preferable. But if the purpose is to analyze change in consumer levels of living or national productivity, the latter is more appropriate. For purposes of studying economic growth, therefore, it is constant price measurement that is desirable.
There are two additional requirements for the measurement of economic growth if the purpose is to calculate change in material welfare. A nation’s rate of growth must be divided by the size of its population in order to find the rate per capita; if an increased number of people is required to produce an increase in the amount of goods and services produced, no one is better off than before. On the other hand, high levels of both population and output growth, even without corresponding growth in per capita output, bespeak an economy’s ability to sustain large increases in population, and this is of interest to students of the sources of national influence and power. A final point: the increase in output should not be a temporary one, such as might follow a year of unusually good harvests. Nor should it merely represent an upward movement in the business cycle. Economic growth is sustained growth, secular in duration rather than cyclical.
In the output data of various countries scholars have found growth cycles (often called «long swings») of varying lengths, some of them 10 years long, others 60 years, and still others even 100 years. In the data of American history the most common long swing, named the «Kuznets cycle» after its discoverer, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets, ranges between 10 and 20 years. A swing is a change in the rate of growth. During a long swing there occurs an expansion phase, followed by a period of continued growth at a retarded rate, culminating in depression. In the 124-year period between 1814 and 1938, nine long swings have been found, averaging 14 years in duration. In the expansion phase of these swings gnp grew at an average rate of about 6 percent, followed by retardation averaging 2 percent. During the depression phase, the rate of growth was extremely low or, ceasing altogether, negative.
Except for agriculture, the pace of growth of nearly every kind of economic activity registered advances during the expansion phase. Long swings occurred in the growth of population, labor force, immigration, transport development, internal migration, geographical settlement, urbanization, residential construction, the prices of common stocks, railroad bond yields, the money supply, commodity prices, and still other economic variables. Long swings, it should be emphasized, took place not in the total volume of output (which has risen without significant interruption, except for the 1930s, since the 1870s) but rather in the rate of increase of that total. Almost always, total output has risen, but at rates that accelerate and then decline. It is these alternations between acceleration and retardation that characterize the long swings of economic growth. America’s growth has proceeded in a series of great surges, followed by periods of much slower growth, and so has the growth of a number of other industrial countries.
Whether or not long swings characterized growth in the earlier years of the nation’s history seems impossible to know. Decennial census returns of output in the various sectors of the economy provide the most reliable source of information on which estimates of growth rates can be based and even these returns are incomplete before 1870. Not until 1840 did census takers include agriculture, which was then and for a number of decades afterward the main provider of incomes in