Games Foxes Play. Clem Sunter

a single idea and, if that idea proved false, the whole theory crumbled; and those philosophers who built up their theory on a variety of observations, and even if several of those observations proved incorrect, the theory could still stand.

      Widening Berlin’s interpretation to mankind in general, the image of what hedgehogs see ahead of them is narrowed to a central vision. They simplify life around one great idea, more or less disregarding everything else, and bet on that idea. The rewards, if their single idea or theory is correct, are substantial, but then again so is the degree of damage if they are wrong – arguably risky stuff in today’s complex, interconnected, uncertain and volatile world. Foxes, on the other hand, know many things, and regard life as a balancing act between competing claims. Foxes think of life as a system composed of many parts and interdependencies, and it is only through the knowledge of the system as a whole that one can optimise decisions about the future. A critical difference between human hedgehogs and foxes is that the former like to think they are in control whereas the latter know they are never fully in control. The success of foxes therefore lies in their adaptability to their external environment and the resourcefulness of their responses. Followers of foxes and hedgehogs will notice the difference in trails they leave behind. Fox prints weave to and fro through forests, avoiding dangerous spots and approaching possible sources of nutritional value. Hedgehog steps never deviate from the chosen path. This is why members of the Hedgehog Preservation Society in the UK build small tunnels underneath the motorways, so that they can cross unhurt.

      Nonetheless, there are plenty of admirers of hedgehogs around. Jim Collins, in his bestseller Good to Great, argues that companies that embrace a hedgehog philosophy and are focused on a single path are more likely to succeed in what they set out to do. He goes on: “For a hedgehog, anything that does not somehow relate to the hedgehog idea holds no relevance.” We contend that employing such a high-risk strategy is increasingly incongruent with the interdependent world we live in, and can steer dangerously close to fanaticism. Fundamentalists are by definition hedgehogs. Nevertheless, we don’t have any problem with focus, particularly when it means the opposite of scatterbrained. Foxes are focused, but also possess whiskers to pick up the sensitivities and interests of the players around them. And they are just as prepared to stand on moral principles as hedgehogs, but not on ideas and dogma.

      In the business world hedgehogs seek an optimal strategy (for everlasting growth), whereas foxes are after a robust strategy which will see them through the bad times in order to prosper in the good times. Nothing more, nothing less. We prefer the fox’s humbler but less brittle approach, because it gives you a better chance of being around in the longer run. As Albert Einstein is reputed to have said: “You can simplify things as much as possible, but don’t make them simpler than they should be.”