Goschen at Berlin of his conversation with Prince Lichnowsky, in which he had pointed out
"that the Russian Government, while desirous of mediation, regarded it as a condition that the military operations against Serbia should be suspended, as otherwise a mediation would only drag on matters, and give Austria time to crush Serbia. It was, of course, too late for all military operations against Serbia to be suspended. In a short time, I supposed, the Austrian forces would be in Belgrade, and in occupation of some Serbian territory. But even then it might be possible to bring some mediation into existence, if Austria, while saying that she must hold the occupied territory until she had complete satisfaction from Serbia, stated that she would not advance further, pending an effort of the powers to mediate between her and Russia."
In a following message Grey related to Goschen a second conversation with Prince Lichnowsky, in which he told the German Ambassador that, in event of a general war, the issues might be so great that it would involve all European interests, and he should not think that Great Britain would stand aside.
"He said that he quite understood this, but he asked whether I meant that we should, under certain circumstances, intervene?
"I replied that I did not wish to say that, or to use anything that was like a threat or an attempt to apply pressure by saying that, if things became worse, we should intervene. There would be no question of our intervening if Germany was not involved, or even if France was not involved. But we knew very well, that if the issue did become such that we thought British interests required us to intervene, we must intervene at once, and the decision would have to be very rapid, just as the decisions of other powers had to be. …
"The German Ambassador took no exception to what I had said; indeed, he told me that it accorded with what he had already given in Berlin as his view of the situation."
In still another message Grey informed Goschen that he had said to the German Ambassador, in reference to the suggestion of San Giuliano, the Italian Prime Minister of mediation between Russia and Austria, that it would not be mediation to urge Russia to stand aside and give Austria a free hand to go any length she pleased.
Grey informed Ambassador Bunsen at Vienna that Austro-Hungarian Ambassador Mensdorff, had offered to submit him a long memorandum justifying the action of his government toward Serbia. Grey refused to discuss the Serbian question now that the peace of Europe was imperilled. The greater question settled, the powers might be free to obtain satisfaction for Austria in the lesser.
"In reply to some further remarks of mine, as to the effect that the Austrian action might have upon the Russian position in the Balkans, he said that, before the Balkan war, Serbia had always been regarded as being in the Austrian sphere of influence."
Bunsen reported to Grey that the news of Russian mobilization was not generally known in Vienna.
France. M. Bienvenu-Martin, Acting Minister for Foreign Affairs, notified the Ambassadors at St. Petersburg, London, Berlin, Rome, Vienna, and Constantinople, and the Minister to Serbia, that the Austro-German attitude was becoming clearer.
"Austria, uneasy concerning the Slav propaganda, has seized the opportunity of the crime of Sarajevo in order to punish the Serbian intrigues, and to obtain in this quarter guaranties which, according as events are allowed to develop or not, will either affect only the Serbian Government and army, or become territorial questions. Germany intervenes between her ally and the other powers and declares that the question is a local one, namely, punishment of a political crime committed in the past, and sure guaranties for the future that the anti-Austrian intrigues will be put an end to. The German Government thinks that Russia should be content with the official and formal assurances given by Austria that she does not seek territorial aggrandizement and that she will respect the integrity of Serbia; in these circumstances the danger of war can come only from Russia, if she seeks to intervene in a question which is well defined. In these circumstances any action for the maintenance of peace must take place at St. Petersburg alone.
"The attitude at Berlin, as at Vienna, is still dilatory. In the former capital, while protesting that the Germans desire to safeguard general peace by common action between the four powers, the idea of a conference is rejected without any other expedient being suggested, and while they refuse to take any positive action at Vienna. In the Austrian capital they would like to keep St. Petersburg in play with the illusion of an entente which might result from direct conversations, while they are taking action against Serbia.
"In these circumstances it seems essential that the St. Petersburg Cabinet, whose desire to unravel this crisis peacefully is manifest, should immediately give their adherence to the British proposal. This proposal must be strongly supported at Berlin in order to decide [Secretary of State] Von Jagow to take real action at Vienna capable of stopping Austria and preventing her from supplementing her diplomatic advantage by military successes. The Austro-Hungarian Government would, indeed, not be slow to take advantage of it in order to impose on Serbia, under the elastic expression of 'guaranties' conditions which, in spite of all assurances that no territorial aggrandizement was being sought, would in effect modify the status of eastern Europe, and would run the risk of gravely compromising the general peace either at once or in the near future."
Vittorio Emanuele III, King of Italy.
Ambassador Paléologue telegraphed from St. Petersburg that Russia would acquiesce in any measures proposed by France and Great Britain to maintain peace. Minister Klobukowski reported from Brussels that the Belgian Government regarded Germany's attitude as enigmatical, and justifying every apprehension.
"It seems improbable that the Austro-Hungarian Government would have taken an initiative which would lead, according to a preconceived plan, to a declaration of war, without previous arrangement with the Emperor William.
"The German Government stand 'with rounded arms' ready to take peaceful or warlike action as circumstances may require; a sudden intervention against us would not surprise anybody here.
"The Belgian Government are taking steps which harmonize with the statement made to me yesterday by M. Davignon that everything will be put in readiness for the defence of the neutrality of the country."
Ambassador Dumaine reported from Vienna:
"The French Consul at Prague confirms the mobilization of the Eighth Army corps, and that of the Landwehr division of this army corps. The cavalry divisions in Galicia are also mobilizing; regiments and cavalry divisions from Vienna and Budapest have already been transported to the Russian frontier. Reservists are now being called together in this district.
"There is a rumor that the Austro-Hungarian Government, in order to be in a position to meet any danger, and perhaps in order to impress St. Petersburg, intend to decide on a general mobilization of their forces on July 30, or August 1. The Austrian Emperor will return from Ischl to Vienna to-morrow."
Ambassador Paléologue reported from Berlin that Austria-Hungary refused direct conversation offered by Russia.
"Austria is hurrying on her military preparations against Russia, and is pressing forward the mobilization which has begun on the Galician frontier. As a result the order to mobilize will be dispatched to-night to thirteen army corps, which are destined to operate eventually against Austria."
Ambassador Jules Cambon reported from Berlin his interview with the German Secretary of State. Von Jagow was awaiting reply from Vienna to his request to hold direct conversation with Russia. He considered that the Serbian reply afforded a basis for negotiation.
"I said that it was just on that account that I considered the rupture by Austria, after she had received such a document, inexplicable.
"The Secretary of State then remarked that with eastern nations one could never obtain sufficient guaranties, and that Austria wished to be able to supervise the carrying out of promises made to her, a supervision which Serbia refused. This, in the eyes of the Secretary of State, is the cardinal point. I answered Herr von Jagow that Serbia, as she wished to remain independent, was bound