with Serbia" is the only way out of the general financial and economic crisis prevailing in Austria-Hungary since annexation of Bosnia. Gold secretly and gradually withdrawn from circulation.
5. Austrian Minister of War, Krobatin, and Chief of Staff, Hetzendorf, break leave of absence to return to Vienna, the latter having had a conversation at Carlsbad with German Chief of Staff, Count Moltke.
6. Reserves retained after stipulated period for maneuvers had expired and their numbers augmented.
7. Noncommittal answers of Count Tisza, Hungarian Prime Minister, to interpolations concerning Serbia in Hungarian Diet.
8. Refusal at Foreign Office in Vienna to discuss Sarajevo incident with foreign representatives, or if subject was mentioned, assurances that nothing would be done against Serbia to give uneasiness to the powers, in particular Russia. Foreign ambassadors, thus assured, quit Vienna on long leaves of absence for watering places. All this indicates that Austria-Hungary was contemplating sudden action, which, when a fait accompli, would likely be accepted by the powers in order to avoid a general war.
9. German Ambassador, Herr von Tschirschky, the only foreign representative informed of note to Serbia. He knew its minutest details, and there is reason to believe he helped draft it.
10. When note was published, French, British, and Russian representatives at Vienna asked me if it were not better to accept the demands and avoid war for the present.
"I said that the note, which amounted in fact to a declaration of war upon Serbia, was worded in such a way that, even if Serbia should accept all the conditions without reserve, Austria-Hungary would still find an excuse for her army to march into Serbia at any time. It was in the belief that the conflict would be limited to Serbia and Austria-Hungary that Austria-Hungary had drafted such a note.
"The Russian Ambassador, M. Schebeko [then absent from Vienna,] previously to the presentation of the note, had stated on several occasions to his colleagues and the Austro-Hungarian Government that Russia could not remain indifferent to any step taken by Austria-Hungary, which might have as an object the humiliation of Serbia. Hence the apprehension felt by the French and British Ambassadors and the Russian Chargé d'Affaires, who at once foresaw the possibility of war between Russia and Austria-Hungary."
11. Expressed intention of Count Berchtold, Austro-Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to chastise Serbia by arms without consent of European concert. Belief expressed by German Ambassador that Russia would permit this, owing to troubles in Asia, and assurances given by him that Germany would stand by her ally in the matter.
"These statements of Herr von Tschirschky have induced many to hold the opinion that Germany desired to provoke a European war, on the ground that it was better to have war with Russia before the latter had completed her military reorganization, i.e., before the spring of 1917. This point of view had formerly been freely discussed and even written about in Vienna. 'The longer the matter is postponed, the smaller will become the chances of success of the Triple Alliance.' On the other hand, rumors from the most authoritative diplomatic sources in Berlin reached me in Vienna, to the effect that the Wilhelmstrasse [German Foreign Office] did not approve of Austria's policy on this question, and that Herr von Tschirschky has exceeded the instructions given to him."
Great Britain. Sir Edward Grey, Secretary for Foreign Affairs, made a statement in the House of Commons as to the diplomatic situation, particularly of Great Britain. The chief points in it were:
1. The peace of Europe cannot be preserved, despite Great Britain's earnest and consistent efforts to that end.
2. Great Britain's good faith in this matter is proved by her actions in the Balkan crisis, where it was generally admitted she worked for peace.
3. Parliament is free to decide on attitude of Great Britain.
Here the secretary referred to the Moroccan crisis of 1906, and said that then he had taken the same attitude with respect to France.
"That position was accepted by the French Government, but they said to me at the time, and I think very reasonably, 'If you think it possible that the public opinion of Great Britain might, should a sudden crisis arise, justify you in giving to France the armed support which you cannot promise in advance, you will not be able to give that support, even if you wish it, when the time comes, unless some conversations have already taken place between naval and military experts.' There was force in that. I agreed to it, and authorized those conversations to take place, but on the distinct understanding that nothing which passed between military or naval experts should bind either Government or restrict in any way their freedom to make a decision as to whether or not they would give that support when the time arose.
"As I have told the House, upon that occasion a general election was in prospect; I had to take the responsibility of doing that without the Cabinet. It could not be summoned. An answer had to be given. I consulted Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, the Prime Minister; I consulted Lord Haldane, who was then Secretary of State for War; and the present Prime Minister [Henry Asquith] who was then Chancellor of the Exchequer. They authorized that [answer], on the distinct understanding that it left the hands of the Government free whenever the crisis arose."
Here the secretary read his reply to the French Ambassador, dated November 22, 1912, which was to the effect stated. It instanced the disposition of the French and British fleets at the time as "not based upon an engagement to cooperate in war," and went on to say
"that, if either Government had grave reason to expect an unprovoked attack by a third power, or something that threatened the general peace, it should immediately discuss with the other whether both governments should act together to prevent aggression and to preserve peace, and, if so what measures they would be prepared to take in common."
The secretary said that the present crisis involved Great Britain's obligations to France in a less formal fashion.
"While we were pledged to give nothing but diplomatic support to France in the Morocco affairs, we were pledged to do so by a definite public agreement [the Treaty of April 8, 1904]. But no Government and no country has less desire to be involved in war over a dispute with Austria and Serbia than the Government and the country of France. France is involved in it because of her obligation of honor under a definite alliance with Russia. It is only fair to the House to say that that obligation cannot apply in the same way to us. We are not parties to the Franco-Russian alliance. We do not even know its terms.
"I now come to what we think the situation requires of us. We have had a long-standing friendship with France. But how far that friendship entails obligation, let every man look into his own heart, and his own feelings, and construe for himself.
"The French coasts are absolutely undefended. The French fleet is in the Mediterranean, and has for some years been concentrated there because of the feeling of confidence and friendship which has existed between the two countries. My own feeling is that if a foreign fleet, engaged in a war which France had not sought, and in which she had not been the aggressor, came down the English Channel and bombarded and battered the undefended coasts of France, we could not stand aside, and see this going on practically within sight of our eyes, with our arms folded, looking on dispassionately, doing nothing.
"Let us assume that out of the situation come consequences unforeseen, which make it necessary at a sudden moment that, in defense of vital British interests, we should go to war; and let us assume—which is quite possible—that Italy, who is now neutral, should depart from her attitude, what then will be the position in the Mediterranean where our trade routes are vital to our interests? We have not kept a fleet in the Mediterranean which is equal to dealing alone with a combination of other fleets in the Mediterranean. We would have exposed this country from our negative attitude at the present moment to the most appalling risk. We feel strongly that France was entitled to know—and to know at once—whether or not in the event of attack upon her unprotected northern and western coasts she could depend upon British support. In these compelling circumstances, yesterday afternoon I gave to the French Ambassador the assurance that if the German fleet undertakes hostile operations against the French coast or shipping the British fleet will give all the protection