Peter B. Seel

Digital Universe


Скачать книгу

the decade between 1965 and 1975. Moore included a table (see Figure 2.3) that featured a logarithmic scale demonstrating this doubling of components on a chip from 1962 to 1965 and then extending this plot into the future. I have reversed the X and Y scales in the version below (with time on the Y scale) for the sake of clarity. Note that this calculation was based on just four confirmed data points (1962 to 1965), and was quite a bold prognostication given the predicted doubling of components at yearly intervals. Yet Moore’s prediction for this remarkable technological feat proved to be prescient, even if the doubling intervals were to be closer to 18 to 24 months and are now approximately 30 months.

      Figure 2.3 Moore’s Law Re-plotted. Source: Modified by author after the original in Electronics, Vol. 38, Number 8.

      Implications for Computing and the Digital Universe

      There was a time when a person could walk into an unfamiliar home and easily make a phone call, turn on the television, or perform a simple task such as boiling a kettle of water. We are confronted today by appliances with astonishing capabilities and with equally complex operational learning curves. The future will see greater applications of artificial intelligence (AI) applied in product design to ease the stress on users, but as the cliché states, “there is a great future for complexity.” The challenge for engineers and product designers in coming decades will be to create “smart” devices that have great functional power, but are also intuitive to operate.

      Technological Determinism

      It is rare to find an observer of modern life willing to go on record in this regard, and I commend Friedman’s courage in doing so. His perspective is worth our critical consideration. While it is clear that a wide range of factors influence social change, including culture, economics, and politics, among many others, Friedman advances technology to a privileged position due to its ubiquity in contemporary life and he is correct in his assessment that “capabilities create intentions.” The development of the MP3 compression format for music files makes a good case study. When recorded music was only available on vinyl records, there were few options available for copying songs. As technology evolved, one could make a cassette tape of a record, but the copy was of poor quality and one had to fast forward and rewind the tape to find a desired song. Once digital technology appeared with the advent of music on compact discs, users could “rip” individual songs onto a computer’s hard drive as digital files.