Kurzweil, “Average Transistor Price,” Singularity.com. http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html.
23
Dan Hutcheson, “Graphic: Transistor Production Has Reached Astronomical Scales,” IEEE Spectrum, April 2, 2015. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales.
24
James W. Cortada, The Computer in the United States: From Laboratory to Market (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p. 117; 95 percent of these were in the US. See also “Early Popular Computers, 1950–1970,” Engineering and Technology History Wiki. https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers,_1950_-_1970.
25
Кристенсен К. Дилемма инноватора. Как из-за новых технологий погибают сильные компании. М.: Альпина Паблишер, 2019. Прим. ред.
26
Horace Dediu, personal correspondence with the author, December 1, 2016.
27
In 1940, 65 percent of American homes had flush toilets. By 1960, it was 90 percent. “Historical Census of Housing Tables – Sewage Disposal.” https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html.
28
Paul R. Liegey, “Microwave Oven Regression Model,” U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm.
29
30
Alex Wilhelm, “Charting Bird and Lime’s Rapid Growth,” Crunchbase News, September 20, 2018. https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/.
31
Computers are so cheap, they turn up in surprising places. Disposable pregnancy tests have a small computer in them – used once and thrown away.
32
Charlotte Burgess, “Future Banking: Creating an ‘Incumbent Challenger’,” Finovate, 2020. https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/.
33
Author’s analysis at Azeem Azhar, “Big Ideas for 2021; China’s Civil-Military Fusion; Tesla’s Infrastructure Advantage; the Climate Decade; Elephant Body Fat & Hegelian Enjoyment ++ #307,” Exponential View. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307.
34
David Rotman, “We’re Not Prepared for the End of Moore’s Law,” MIT Technology Review, February 24, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/.
35
Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” Kurzweil.net, 2001. https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns.
36
Kurzweil also predicts a “singularity” where the capacities of computers exceed those of the human brain. This argument is not relevant to my argument, so I don’t consider it here.
37
Azeem Azhar, “Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell,” Exponential View, August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence.
38
Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, “AI and Compute,” OpenAI, May 16, 2018. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/.
39
Charles E. Leiserson et al., “There’s Plenty of Room at the Top: What Will Drive Computer Performance after Moore’s Law?” Science 368(6495), June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744.