The Hunt for Red October. Tom Clancy

conclusions from these patterns of activity. It would appear that they think he’s heading in our direction. Given his estimated speed as something between ten and thirty knots, he could be anywhere from here, below Iceland, to here, just off our coast. You will note that in either case he has successfully avoided detection by all four of these SOSUS barriers –’

      ‘Wait a minute. You say they have issued orders to their ships to sink one of their own submarines?’

      ‘Yes, Mr President.’

      The president looked at the DCI. ‘This is reliable information, Judge?’

      ‘Yes, Mr President, we believe it to be solid.’

      ‘Okay, Dr Ryan, we’re all waiting. What’s this Ramius fellow up to?’

      ‘Mr President, our evaluation of this intelligence data is that Red October is attempting to defect to the United States.’

      The room went very quiet for a moment. Ryan could hear the whirring of the fan in the slide projector as the National Security Council pondered that. He held his hands on the lectern to keep them from shaking under the stare of the ten men in front of him.

      ‘That’s a very interesting conclusion, Doctor.’ The president smiled. ‘Defend it.’

      ‘Mr President, no other conclusion fits the data. The really crucial thing, of course, is the recall of their other missile boats. They’ve never done that before. Add to that the fact that they have issued orders to sink their newest and most powerful missile sub, and that they are chasing in this direction, and one is left with the conclusion that they think she has left the reservation and is heading this way.’

      ‘Very well. What else could it be?’

      ‘Sir, he could have told them that he’s going to fire his missiles. At us, at them, the Chinese, or just about anyone else.’

      ‘And you don’t think so?’

      ‘No, Mr President. The SS-N-20 has a range of six thousand miles. That means he could have hit any target in the Northern Hemisphere from the moment he left the dock. He’s had six days to do that, but he has not fired. Moreover, if he had threatened to launch his birds, he would have to consider the possibility that the Soviets would enlist our assistance to locate and sink him. After all, if our surveillance systems detect the launch of nuclear-armed missiles in any direction, things could get very tense, very quickly.’

      ‘You know he could fire his birds in both directions and start World War III,’ the secretary of defence observed.

      ‘Yes, Mr Secretary. In that case we’d be dealing with a total madman – more than one, in fact. On our missile boats there are five officers, who must all agree and act in unison to fire their missiles. The Soviets have the same number. For political reasons their nuclear warhead security procedures are even more elaborate than ours. Five or more people, all of whom wish to end the world?’ Ryan shook his head. ‘That seems most unlikely, sir, and again, the Soviets would be well advised to inform us and enlist our aid.’

      ‘Do you really think they would inform us?’ Dr Pelt asked. His tone indicated what he thought.

      ‘Sir, that’s more a psychological question than a technical one, and I deal principally with technical intelligence. Some of the men in this room have met their Soviet counterparts and are better equipped to answer that than I am. My answer to your question, however, is yes. That would be the only rational thing for them to do, and while I do not regard the Soviets as entirely rational by our standards, they are rational by their own. They are not given to this sort of high-stakes gambling.’

      ‘Who is?’ the president observed. ‘What else might it be?’

      ‘Several things, sir. It could simply be a major naval exercise aimed at testing their ability to close our sea lines of communication and our ability to respond, both on short notice. We reject this possibility for several reasons. It’s too soon after their autumn naval exercise, CRIMSON STORM, and they are only using nuclear submarines; no diesel-powered boats seem to be involved. Clearly speed is at a premium in their operation. And as a practical matter, they do not run major exercises at this time of year.’

      ‘And why is that?’ the president asked.