What’s on the Horizon
Whatever we claim to think of the impending millennium, most of us in the West are at least a little curious about what lies around the corner. We’ve grown up with futuristic novels and movies set in 2001 and beyond, and we can’t help but be somewhat anxious about how our lives will be altered by the period of rapid change we’re currently experiencing.
Now that we’ve laid out the Big Nexts that will help shape life next, we’d like to share with you our sense of what other key trends are lying in wait. The implications of these trends will not be quite so broad as those of the Big Nexts, but collectively they indicate the direction in which today’s trendsetters are moving our lives.
Next: A Din of Small – and Not So Small – Voices
Think of Drudge – as in Matt Drudge, author of the online ‘Drudge Report’ – as the symbol of a small voice roaring. He is America’s most famous Internet personality, a cyber-gossip who has now been signed by Rupert Murdoch’s Fox TV to transfer his yack from the on-line world to network television. Armed only with a computer and modem, he has managed to build himself into a media mogul online. While his online report hasn’t yet reaped major profits for him, it has provided a daily audience for his views and ‘news’ reports – one that is far larger than would have been accessible to anyone outside the major media prior to the birth of the Internet.
As with any form of mass media, the Internet wields great power. The difference between the Internet and TV or radio is that the Net allows two-way communication and gives as much potential power to a thirteen-year-old computer geek as to a corporate CEO or government leader. ‘Power’ online is based solely on the ability to draw in an audience and communicate with it in a persuasive manner. It can be utilized to bolster the rank of a political party, to form a fan club for a favourite celebrity, or to sell products and build one’s brand.
Voices outside traditional ‘news’ organizations are being heard in other media as well. A most interesting development in recent years in the US has been the video news release (VNR, which is routinely substituted for ‘hard news’ without warning to viewers that the footage was created by, for, and about a brand, a company or an organization – by anyone with the money to make and distribute videocassettes with edutainment value. Clearly, this is a consequence of the proliferation of twenty-four-hour news services and of the subsequent hunger for programming. (Imagine how much more programming is demanded by the Net.)
As brands make themselves heard at news stations worldwide, one needn’t take a very large step to consider the viability of branded news on TV. With iconography that has come to serve as a universal language (think Nike swoosh), numerous global brands are well on their way to creating the credibility they need to offer up believable ‘news’ and feature coverage.
Next: Arm’s-Length Communion
Caucuses, coalitions, militias, networks. By any name, such groups are all the rage. But 1998 is not a year for joiners. It’s a year in which followers sign on for brief respites of participation for the sole purpose of being recharged by the power of community: join a church for the monthly potluck supper; sign up for a half day of volunteering rather than commit to a long-term project; tuck a membership card from a political action committee into your wallet – no need to attend a second meeting. Informal networks are in; rigid institutions are out.
Next: Brands 2000
As a number of twentieth-century powerhouse brands battle to retain market share, new industries are springing up as if from nowhere to create power brands for the next millennium. Examples include Boston Market, creator of the home meal replacement industry; Starbucks, which turned coffee into a retail experience; and America On-line (AOL) which made the proverbial back fence a twenty-four-hour/seven-days-a-week opportunity for neighbourly chat and captured a share of coach potatoes’ minds and eyes from the networks. More trends to watch: convergence, as manufacturers and programmers of the boxes that run home and office create ever more indispensable products; edutainment, as we strive to make the next generation (and ourselves) more competitive; and relaxation as we pursue relief from the stresses of modern-day life.
Next: A Branded Existence
The world populace soon will have an all-too-clear understanding of the adage ‘everything communicates’, as marketers extend their reach beyond the usual platforms. Already in the testing phase: advertisements delivered via ATM and sampling offers based on smart-card purchasing patterns. Just as urban infill will eventually lay claim to every vacant lot in the urban landscape, so, too, will ‘brand infill’ ensure that every experience, thought, place and product is marketed to its utmost potential. As with marriage, some unions will be for life; others will be brief, even foolhardy. The unstoppable James Bond marketing machine – Tomorrow Never Dies drove high-speed visibility for BMW. Ericsson and Heineken, among others – is a ready reminder of the opportunities.
Next: In Praise of Parenthood
The death of eight-month-old American Matthew Eappen at the hands of his British au pair sparked heated debate about his mother’s choice to continue her professional career – albeit in a part-time capacity – rather than stay home to care for her children. The debate over ‘choice’ will no longer revolve solely around abortion; instead, more and more women will be faced with the need to defend their ‘choice’ to work outside the home – particularly when that home is in an upmarket community. Parenting will be touted as the most important profession of the next decade.
Next: Redefining Desirability
The new age of heightened desirability is thirty-six – the age at which Princess Diana will forever rest, frozen in time at the height of her sensuality. The fashion industry will continue to push parallel images of the heroin-chic sixteen-year-old model, mature beyond her years, and her counterpart: the youthful and innocent coquette. But the older, wiser, and much more sexy Diana archetype will prove a compelling alternative. Mature woman/young stud relationships will make headline news, supplanting the Jennifer phenomenon of the eighties, when twenty-something trophy wives were hunted and mounted by fifty-something tycoons. Look for Leonardo DiCaprio to partner with Sharon Stone, for the Francesca Annis – Ralph Fiennes romance to be duplicated again and again. Mid-youth now runs until the onset of menopause, with thirty-six marking the absolute age of power and those over forty-two still regarded as ‘hot’, bringing to relationships experience, enthusiasm, and – thanks to new fertility tricks – even the prospect of children.
Next: Greener Approaches
As this planet gets more crowded, consumers are recognizing their impact on the world, the world’s impact on them – and our communal responsibility to future generations. So far, the ‘pure consumer’ has embraced such green products as natural cosmetics, eco-friendly fabrics and organic food. Interest in sustainable architecture – with its emphasis on energy conservation, long-life materials, and environmentally friendly building techniques – is on the rise. And electric vehicles and their gas-and-electric-powered cousins, the hybrids, are poised to usher in an era of ‘green’ automobiles. Toyota, for one, expected to sell 12,000 models of its hybrid, the Prius, to Japanese consumers in 1998. As green thinking migrates from left to centre, consumers will increasingly demand environmental accountability from product and service providers.
Next: Aggressive Health Maintenance
Technology is coming that will ensure less invasive, more civilized and more humane ways to prevent, detect and treat disease. Ten years ago, magnetic resonance imagining (MRI) was an innovation which provided a radiation-free alternative to X-rays. The potential of this innovation will be extended far beyond testing for neurological disorders. MRI scanners will become far more accessible, and even primary-care practitioners will have direct access to such machines, enabling them to do everything