McLuhan is credited with being the first person who genuinely understood that technology was changing and would change mass media, and that mass media and contemporary life are so interconnected that everything would change, fast and hard. Those of us who spent part of the seventies contemplating his work recognize that we are already living in his ‘global village’ and understand how essential it is to decode our present, rather than live life with an eye on the rearview mirror. In the nineties, the present is an enormously important tool for those in the trendtracking business, and especially for those in global marketing communications.
Why do advertising people care about trends? On a simplistic level, the success of an ad campaign is predicated on whether the marketing message is on trend. It’s often said that advertising is a window on culture. We think that’s true, and that’s why anything that can be used to monitor change and change agents is a fundamental tool for effective marketing communications. So, in our work as advertisers, we appreciate the degree to which accurate trendtracking is critical to the marketing process. Accurately spotting and forecasting trends is of fundamental importance in determining whether an ad is a genuine asset to a brand (ideally by becoming a part of popular culture) or simply a negligible wave over which channel surfers pass.
Think of trends as human: they have a life cycle. That is, they are sown or fertilized, they gestate, they grow, mature, age and eventually die. Some trends are reincarnated a decade or more later, often in slightly different form.
How do we track trends? Like other major trendtrackers, our approach is interdisciplinary. We study and analyse traditional and non-traditional media, in both the specialized and popular categories. Because opportunity is missed by those who view the world only through the eyes of their chosen profession, we are confirmed generalists, tracking scores of themes daily. When we get onto something, we turn to the experts – and then consider critically their points of view. Notice how often the so-called experts disagree and restate the obvious to emphasize their particular take on a situation or scenario. Notice, too, that one’s ‘expertness’ is empowering; sometimes predictions can become self-fulfilling as a result of media hype.
When all is said and done, trendtracking, like communication, is part art, part science. An effective trendtracker must have a talent for the rhetorical, as well as a pragmatic view of the message impact. What will trend X mean for me? For everyone else? As observed by futurist Wendell Bell, ‘The primary goal of futurists is not to predict the future, but to uncover images of possible, probable, and preferable futures that enable people to make informed decisions about their lives.’ Our trendtracking style is about identifying the probable for life and work next – and about proposing conceivable implications if what’s probable happens …
We view the future through contemporary popular culture, a trait that puts us in good stead when trying to connect with readers outside the advertising community. Advertising is, after all, one of the world’s common cultural touchpoints. From the Pillsbury Dough Boy to the dancing California raisins to the hyperactive Energizer bunny, advertising’s icons are a part of popular culture around the globe. These ‘figures of sale’ and taglines tie us together with consumers in other countries, serving as a common reference for conversation in just about any language.
The publication of Next is in part the result of our two-year global odyssey. Our unique take on the world now and next is genuinely shaped by Ira and Marian having had the exposure that comes with being two of the privileged few who have jumped from continent to continent absorbing the cultures, media and lifestyles of trendsetters in many, many countries. We hope our zest for what’s different, as well as our respect for culture, pervades all our observations and the implications we propose.
What to Expect from Next
For the sake of making Next: A Vision of Lives in the Future an easier read, we have created a few devices to highlight the key themes.
Experience Gathering
This book records the changes we’ve noted in Europe, North America, and elsewhere, and it cites the sources that helped us to identify key shifts and corroborate major patterns of life and work next. Our approach is intended to empower readers to begin the process of interpolating for yourselves the information you consume via traditional news channels and on and off the Internet. By harnessing the power of the information you receive each day, rather than being overwhelmed by it, you will become adequately equipped to manage future change.
As we noted in the introduction this travelogue to the future is not some vision of the ‘brave new world’. Rather, it is a practicum – filled with things that are just on the horizon, trends we are watching move from the periphery to Main Street. Also addressed are the potential commercial implications of those movements. We start with the ‘Big Nexts’: observations about human behaviour and interactions that, in our view, are the overarching factors defining our collective journey to whatever and wherever is next. You will note that many Big Nexts have been expressed as paradoxes. The apparent contradictions suggest that, as part of our future, making things work will require a more expansive world view.
Big Next: The Ever-more-demanding Consumer
Imagine you’re sitting at your desk, waiting for an important contract. You check your fax machine, your email, and even for FedEx and courier deliveries. And then you call the person who drew up the contract and he says, ‘Don’t worry, you’ll get it. I dropped it in the mail slot yesterday.’ Fifteen years ago, that response wouldn’t have raised an eyebrow. But who has time today to wait for snail mail? We want everything yesterday, and we grow increasingly frustrated by people who waste our time with antiquated means of communication.
Well, that’s actually how today’s consumers feel. Having made new technologies a part of our lives, we want everything faster than ever before. Anything that’s not immediate is s-l-o-w. Same-day delivery. Instant news. Nuked meals. DirecTV. PC banking. Increasingly, we have no patience for products and services we can’t access right NOW. And, of great commercial significance, our satisfaction with brands is more and more defined by immediacy rather than quality of service. In North America, in particular, retailers are discovering that customers aren’t willing to wait till the store reopens at 9 a.m. to buy milk. We want it now – and we’ll get it, whether via a competitor that stays open late or at a twenty-four-hour convenience store. The result is a burgeoning number of twenty-four-hour retail establishments, from bookstores and copy shops to doughnut shops.
More than that, consumers around the world are rejecting the notion that ‘one size fits all’. A popular T-shirt one sees today reads, ‘I ask only that you treat me no differently than you would the Queen.’ The T-shirt may be meant as a joke, but the attitude is pure reality. As new technologies have made it easier for companies to target individuals, consumers have grown accustomed to white-gloved treatment. Time magazine comes with a printout showing how the subscriber’s local representatives voted on critical issues. Levi Strauss lets us order computerized-fit jeans. Parents can buy personalized storybooks, videos and dolls for their children. And customer service centres around the world are scrambling to put a touch