last for a short time
The line between trends and fads can be tricky. Although some trends seem to spotlight a currently popular story, good ones need to describe something that happens over a span of time. Fads, in comparison, describe an idea that’s popular in the short term but doesn’t last. Great trends do reflect a moment in time, but they also describe more than a fleeting moment.
Myth # 5 - Trends Are Hopelessly Broad Predictions
Perhaps no other myth about trends is as fueled by reality as this one. The fact is, we encounter hopelessly broad trend predictions in the media all the time. Therefore, the problem comes in concluding that trends should be broad and all encompassing. Good trends tend to be more of the opposite: They define something that’s concrete and distinct, without being limiting.
For example, someone once asked me after an event if I had considered the rise of 3D printing as a trend. I replied that I had not, but the “Makers Movement”—which was a well described trend that focused on the human desire to be a creator and make something (which 3D printing certainly enabled)—was a worthwhile trend. The point was, a trend is never a description of something that just exists—like 3D printing.
Instead, a trend must describe what people do or believe as a result. Once you know that the “Makers Movement” describes the human desire to make something, for example, you can think about how to offer that type of fulfillment to your customers in how they interact with you. IKEA has benefitted from this trend for years—because people often feel a disproportionate emotional connection to furniture they had to work to assemble themselves. Psychologist have dubbed this the “IKEA effect.”
Now that I’ve shared the most common myths about trend predictions, let’s consider why so many trend predictions involve self-indulgent guesswork or lazy thinking. What exactly makes them so useless?
To answer this question, let me tell you a little story.
Why Most Trend Predictions Are Useless
A few years ago, I picked up the year-end edition of Entrepreneur magazine, which promised to illuminate trends to watch in the coming year. Earlier that same week, a special double issue of BusinessWeek magazine had arrived in the mail making a similar promise.
It was the end of the year and the trend season was in full swing.
Just like New Year’s resolutions to lose weight, trend forecasting is popular in December (one of the reasons why each annual edition of Non-Obvious is usually published in December as well). Unfortunately, the side effect of this annual media ritual is an abundance of lazy predictions and vague declarations.
For entertainment, I collect these year-end trend forecasts and keep them as standing memorials to the volume of pitiful predictions that bombard us as we look to the year ahead.
Here are a few of the worst-offending, most obvious “trends” I’ve seen. For the sake of kindness, I haven’t tagged them with their sources or authors:
“It’s all about the visuals.”
“Streaming video content.”
“The Year of Drones has arrived. Really.”
“Content Marketing will continue to be the place to be.”
“Fantasy Sports”
“Virtual Reality”
“Change will be led by smart home technology.”
Virtual Reality? Really?
Not to ruin the suspense, but I don’t believe any of these should be described as trends. Some are just random buzzwords or the names of platforms. Others are hopelessly broad, useless, and, yes, obvious.
None of them fit my trend definition of a unique idea describing the accelerating present.
Meanwhile, all of us as media consumers read these predictions with varying levels of skepticism. To better understand why, let’s review the four main reasons why most trend predictions fail the believability test.
Reason # 1 - No Objectivity
If you sell drones for racing, declaring 2018 the “Year of Racing Drones” is clearly self-serving. Of course, most bias isn’t this easy to spot and objectivity is notoriously difficult for any of us. Our biases are based on our expertise and the world we know. This is particularly true in business, where we sometimes need to believe in an industry or brand in order to succeed. The problem is that losing objectivity usually leads to wishful thinking. Just because we want something to be a trend doesn’t make it one.
Reason #2 - No INSIGHT
Trends need to do more than repeat common knowledge. For example, saying that “more people will buy upgraded smartphones this year” is obvious—and useless, because it lacks insight. The biggest reason that most trend predictions share these types of obvious ideas is because it’s easier to do so. Lazy thinking is always easier than offering an informed and insightful point of view.
Great trends are never obvious declarations of fact that most people already know.
Instead, they share new ideas in insightful ways while also describing the accelerating present.
Reason # 3 - No Proof
Sharing a trend without specific examples is like declaring yourself a musician by simply buying a guitar. Unfortunately, many trend predictions similarly coast on the power of a single story or example. Exceptional examples and stories are powerful parts of illustrating why a trend matters. They are necessary elements of proving a trend. Only finding one example and declaring something a trend without more evidence is usually a sign that a so-called trend is based on little more than guesswork.
RReason #4 - No Application
Perhaps the most common place where many trend predictions fall short is in the discussion of how to apply them. It’s not enough to think about trends in the context of describing them. The best trend forecasts go further than just describing something that’s happening. They also share insights on what it means and what you can or should do differently as a result of the trend. In other words, trends should be actionable.
How to Think Different About Trends
Now that we have examined the many myths and reasons for failure, let’s focus on what makes a non-obvious trend:
A Non-Obvious Trend is a curated observation that describes the accelerating present in a new, unique way—usually by looking at the intersection of multiple industries, behaviors, and beliefs.
Over the next two chapters, you’ll learn the step-by-step technique that can help you think differently about trends and escape the trap of lazy thinking that leads to obvious ideas. In doing that, you’ll immediately find yourself having more insights than your peers around you and seeing the connections between industries and stories in a way that most people don’t.
The key to the method you’re about to learn is a willingness to go outside your usual sources of information and open your mind to unconventional ways of thinking and brainstorming. As a result, you’ll become better at spotting the connections between the things you read, what you see, and the conversations you have.
There’s magic to be found in thinking like a trend curator. Let’s talk about how to find it.
2
The Curator’s Mindset:
Learning the 5 Essential Habits
of Trend Curators
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