comparison of all preceding editions of this Guide, first available in 1977, confirms that trend. If the number of collectors were to be plotted on that same graph, the result would probably be an identically proportionate rise.
The great influx of new collectors and the increasing affluence of Americans, combined with a general inflationary trend in money and the decreasing supply of available antique arms, were chief factors in creating the steady overall price rise through the 1950s and 1960s. As earlier mentioned, the recessionary cycles in the economy rarely played a noticeable role in lessening either demand for guns or downward trends in their prices. Thus prices in most cases, if not continuing their rise, remained consistent or steady, then continued their upward trend the moment the economy resumed an even keel. In several instances highly specialized areas of arms collecting showed price rises out of proportion with the rest of the field. This was usually observed only in cases where a few collectors were attracted to a specialty and competed simultaneously for the very limited available specimens. A noteworthy example was Confederate handguns; always a rare commodity commanding prices commensurate with their importance. In the mid-1960s a number of new collectors caused a sudden increased demand, and prices quickly rose almost unaccountably 50 to 100 percent. The result was what might be termed somewhat of an hysteria in the market, particularly on the part of the neophyte collector. After a short period it was found that quite a few Confederate handguns were available with no takers, and a number of speculators trying to cash in on the demand found themselves holding the bag. The very fast and disproportionate price-rise had simply discouraged some of the new collectors who then gave up and went into other specialties; those who had speculated were loathe to take losses and thus for the next few years the Confederate handgun market merely stagnated. Others were discouraged from entering the field due to the number of unsold and over-priced guns on the market. The passage of time and the general inflationary trend in the following years allowed the market to catch up with the prices of the Confederate handguns, and they once again took their rightful place of importance in the collecting field. Confederate handguns have not only continued to enjoy a healthy demand and solid sales, but now number among the arms showing the largest price increases. The Confederate handgun is but the most noteworthy example of disproportionate price increases; similar episodes have occurred in other highly specialized arms areas. Certain models and types of Winchesters have been caught up in this hysteria of sudden price rises only to find themselves being topped out. The passage of time, though, has found the market catching up with the prices. It does take some astuteness and common sense to recognize what is happening when very sudden and steep increases occur quite disproportionate to developments in the rest of the market.
Steady growth both in numbers of collectors and values of specimens, coupled with a vast amount of research studies and publications during the 1960s and continuing to the present contributed to the upward overall trend in the antique firearms field. It is interesting to note that the books currently available on antique guns and related subjects number in the many hundreds; yet there is still much room for improvement of many texts, and for new studies in relatively unexplored fields. A much larger number of titles have gone out of print and are difficult to locate.
In the early 1970s the greatest, often record-setting price increases were noted. Momentum remained high through the entire 70s and right on into the early 80s. True, there was a leveling off and a readjustment in the deep recession in the early 80s but prices (except in a few isolated instances) never slid backwards at any time and demand never slackened; overpriced mediocre merchandise merely stagnated much as it always had. Both demand and prices had increased almost on the same scale as the runaway inflationary trend common throughout most of the world in the late 70s. When inflation eased so too did the general price rise. The demand factor continued to reign supreme.
Reviewing the “Introductions” of the preceding eight editions of this Guide offers a credible means to get a handle on what has taken place in this hobby in the past 30 years; a practical and reasonably accurate barometer. The general trend certainly affects ever-increasing values and also recognizes the added emphasis focused upon detail and manufacturing minutiae which continue to dominate many areas of specialty collecting. Those same preceding years have seen greater significance, justly deserved, accorded to antique arms directly associated with specific eras and events in American history and the individuals that may have personally owned and carried them.
An interesting and influencing factor in changing the American antique arms market had been the entrance into the picture of the European buyer. Until the late 1960s, the European antique arms market, especially as it existed for the sale of American arms, played no role of any consequence. In fact, up to the 1960s Americans had been able to purchase large quantities of antique arms in Europe (both American made pieces as well as European arms) for import and sale throughout the United States. In the late 1960s this trend was completely reversed. Rising European affluence and a great influx of new collectors there caused rather meteoric rises in prices for arms in Europe, making it practically impossible for an American to purchase over there and import. European buyers (dealers and collectors) came to American shores to gather up great quantities of their own arms as well as American manufactured pieces to export for sale in their own countries. This situation was quite volatile and very much subject to the economy of the several countries involved as well as their currency restrictions (often subject to unpredictable fluctuations).
The European factor caused considerable change in the American market beginning in the early 1970s and was especially noticeable in affecting prices of American made guns of the Civil War and Indian War eras, mainly pieces in poor and mediocre condition. Quite a few Europeans have a great fascination with those periods of American history, and a heavy demand was created for weapons of those eras, partly influenced by a proliferation of television and movie Westerns. However, the European collector is generally not as discriminating a buyer condition-wise as is his American counterpart. Hence, the demand was much greater for lower quality pieces, and prices for those arms shot up disproportionately. Demand and sale of American arms oscillates in direct ratio to the fluctuations of the economies (and money restrictions imposed) of individual European countries. In the early 1980s the European buyer, once here in prodigious numbers, had, like the passenger pigeon and the buffalo ... or even the dodo bird ... become an almost extinct species! Although he no longer directly affected the American market, he left behind a very wide following of lovers forsaken who, like the mariner’s wife, look forlornly to sea waiting for the ship to return! Those same “lovers scorned” continued their lonely vigil with many sitting on piles of mediocrity they had accumulated for the foreign market; one which had merely been a temporary aberration on the collecting scene! The hysteria those dealers created in their frenzy to accumulate hoards of ordinary merchandise for Europe, left a trail of carnage behind them in the many unknowing collectors and small-time dealers who thought their mediocre guns were suddenly turning into gold all over America ... never realizing that it was only the temporary, short-lived European market that kindled, and ultimately doused the demand!
The late 1980s and early 1990s saw a slow return of European and a few Scandinavian buyers to the American market searching for antique American arms as well as those of their respective countries. By the mid 90s even that sporadic trend slackened. Their impact has been much more modest than it was with the earlier wave. Restrictive gun laws in a few countries have caused some to limit the scope of their purchases here. While generally adding to the collectors’ market, they have not generated the volatility attendant to their earlier entry.
Another interesting observation and reality of the antique arms business in America, and one for which no explanation is offered, is the changing pattern of the professional full-time antique arms dealer. In the 1940s and 1950s there were quite a few full-time dealers issuing catalogs on a regularly scheduled basis. The number of such dealers today has dwindled to the point that less than a handful regularly issue sales catalogs. Very possibly this number may dwindle to nil, since there are but the slightest signs of dealers coming into the field who intend to regularly catalog their merchandise. Likewise, there is an apparent decreasing number of full-time dealers who have retail establishments open to the public at regular hours and to which the collector may freely visit. The trend, with increasing frequency these past years, has shown a great influx of new and full-time dealers in the field, but their manner of conducting business is completely at contrast to the time-honored approach standard