in Quebec and out west, we can’t avoid the conclusion that what’s happening is very big and well organized.”
Eliot looked first to Mike Liu, a long-service operator and the oldest member of the team. “Mike, comments?”
“Well, I agree with most of Maggie’s assessment. But she suggests a great deal of sophisticated planning and coordinated operations, and I don’t see it, at least not yet. If the regulars in the Movement are in charge, which I admit we’re not sure is true, then this isn’t a military coup, it’s a political movement. If we think they are planning what Maggie suggests, or that someone else has taken charge and is planning something that big and that military, then we ought to try to imagine answers to the why, what, and how questions. I’m thinking why the West; with what possible objectives; how would they carry out the operation? We haven’t been able to answer these questions, and since these people aren’t stupid, I assume it’s because they’re not planning that type of activity.”
Wednesday, September 1, 1435 hours
Winnipeg: Colonel Stevenson’s Headquarters
The usual afternoon ops staff team sat around the large map table, notebooks at hand. Colonel Sam stepped up to the map. “Okay, let’s go over the outline operation to make sure we’re clear on objectives and how we’re going to reach them.
“The Western strategy is uncomplicated: control Winnipeg and we control the region. The Red River Brigade is assembling battle groups across the province; Alex Gabriel’s Group Riel is assembling in Winnipeg. Group Winnipegosis is being activated in Flin Flon and The Pas. Group Métis is still undercover but ready to form-up on short notice for action at the Winnipeg airport. And in the east, near Kenora, and farther west, in Saskatchewan and Alberta, other contingents are increasingly ready. The assault teams and columns in each group are commanded by cadres of seasoned, ex-regular Canadian Forces officers and NCOs who’ve hastily trained their civilian ‘warriors’ to handle small arms, work as teams, and, usually, follow orders.” Light-hearted banter and smiles eased the tension.
“Nevertheless, we need to keep things as simple as circumstances allow. In the first phase, and on my command, three mobile columns from the north and east will take the offensive in Manitoba. Column Cree will move from The Pas on Highways 10 and 60, then rapidly along Highway 6 to an assembly area spanning Warren on Highway 67 to Stonewall. Column Pelican will follow from Flin Flon via Highway 10 south to threaten Brandon and block western approaches along Highway 1 and southern routes into Winnipeg. Column Ojibwa will move from its assembly area near Kenora and move to block Highway 17 at the junction of Highways 17 and 44. Alex Gabriel’s Battle Group Riel and his combat teams will capture the centre of Winnipeg. In the second phase, we’ll threaten the real targets.”
Wednesday, September 1, 1450 hours
Ottawa: Integrated Threat Assessment Centre
Eliot Quadra looked around the table. “Okay, we have two different concepts. Any others?”
Walter Boudria joined the conversation. “Eliot, I’d like to go back to the question of the aim. Let me throw some kind of random thoughts on the table. I’m assuming a bold operation. We have all the tapes of Molly Grace’s public speeches and the secret electronic intercepts as well, and I don’t see any compromise in any of them. She’s not in this to win some treaty benefits. I think she wants the whole cake. So how about this: the Movement is going to try to grab control of all the ungoverned spaces in the West and hold them for negotiations about aboriginal sovereignty over the West. In which case, Maggie’s right: the Quebec thing, at least south of James Bay, is a decoy. And, by the way, I’m convinced they’re going to move soon.”
The assessment team looked to their boss, but Quadra deflected the group-think invitation and refused to endorse or reject Walter’s ideas. Instead, he continued evenly, “Okay, Walter, tell us how they’d carry out this bold plan of yours.”
“Well, the speculation factor expands with imagination, but I assume that they will use their main advantage, which is people. In other words, they’ll assemble large groups of natives across the North, move south suddenly, and simply overwhelm the local security forces, then sit on the ground until we quit or negotiate. We don’t have the resources to handle such an eventuality and Stevenson knows that. So I bet on his playing to his advantage. Besides, it’s simple, and he can’t manage anything but a simple strategy with the forces he has available.”
Mike broke in. “Sure, nice plot for fiction, but where’s the evidence? We would’ve seen some indication of this. Maybe not the overt preparation for an assault, but other things, changes in the routine in the community, things that are hard to hide. There simply aren’t any such indicators – no training camps, no rallies, no hostile movements, nobody of interest disappearing and then suddenly popping up in the community again. Things look normal.”
Maggie jumped to Walter’s defence. “But that’s the point, Mike. My assumption – our assumption – is that they’ve been successful in keeping things normal and that means they have to go for something simple. And for simple to be effective, it has to be big. If you were Stevenson, what would your plan be? Normal today, uprising tomorrow. We won’t see anything until we see the whole thing blow up in our faces.”
Elena Morales joined the sceptics. “But then what’s the rest of his plan? Why would the government negotiate, even if large numbers of natives moved south and sat around Winnipeg and Regina? We could wait them out. It’s true that Stevenson could get a pretty large number of angry people to do something simple on a large scale, but the other great weakness of amateurs, besides inability to coordinate things, is they don’t stick it out when things get tough.
“We’re nearly into autumn and you know there’s a good chance most of the region will be snowed in by Hallowe’en. Besides, who’s going to feed these people while they sit there for months, even if they don’t get bored and wander off? We agree on one thing: Stevenson can’t manage complicated logistics. So the government stalls until the natives go home, or we reassemble a strong military presence in the West. And Stevenson, or whoever’s really in charge, must be able to see that far ahead too. So what have they got, or what do they think they’ve got, to make us give in?”
Wednesday, September 1, 1510 hours
Winnipeg: Colonel Stevenson’s Headquarters
Stevenson looked around the table. “That’s the bare-bones outline. So what have we got to back it up? First, there’re our troops, the active people and the supporters in the background. There’re more than 70,000 native people living on reserves in Manitoba alone, and more than 100,000 in Saskatchewan and Alberta combined. We need only a small fraction of them to carry out this mission.
“Remember, all of Ireland and the bulk of the British army were held in fear and in check for more than twenty years by a few hundred Irish Republican Army radicals. The hard corps was not much more than a thousand men and women, but the real strength came from the silent supporters, ordinary citizens, who provided safe-houses, food, and so on, and who carried messages and kept an eye on the Brit soldiers and the security forces. We’ve got enormous strength there too. Not from everyone, not from all the elders, but more than enough to get the job done.
“Now let’s review phase two and the real targets.”
Wednesday, September 1, 1525 hours
Ottawa: Integrated Threat Assessment Centre
“So, what have they got, or what do they think they’ve got, to make us give in?” Eliot turned to Hugh Jones-Winsor. “That’s your cue, Hugh. Everyone, Hugh and I discussed the vulnerability factor earlier today with the defence minister after the CDS and Ed Conway softened him up with an outline version. I’d like Hugh to run through the assessment his section has developed from that meeting.”
“Thanks, Eliot. Just for background, I explained to the minister that the threat isn’t where we should be concentrating our attention. Rather we need to look to our vulnerabilities; you all know the argument. I’m assuming the native leaders understand our weaknesses and that they’ll be going for them right