they were asked, “Have you seen this ad before?” Twelve to fourteen per cent said they had. Yet they could not have seen it since it had never appeared in public print.
A few weeks later the same persons were shown the same ad proof sheet and were asked the same question. Only twelve to fourteen per cent of those who had seen the ad before could say they remembered it.
The proof sheet dealt with a pharmaceutical product and those interviewed were doctors. Obviously the doctors were not trying to be misleading. They no doubt answered the question honestly, but their answers showed that most of them could not recall the ad. If doctors cannot recollect something they have seen, the same certainly must be true of other groups of men and women.
We have just as much evidence to show that people cannot predict what they will do in the future. It was reported that Elmo Roper, for example, conducted a survey to forecast public response to Life Magazine. The study showed that Life Magazine would not be a success. I think we all know that there was something wrong with that study.
The national elections of 1948 were an outstanding example of the unreliability of polling methods. Dr. Gallup, Mr. Roper and other pollsters failed to predict the election results because people just didn’t know how they would vote. People could tell the pollster only what they thought they would do when they walked into the voting booth. And what people think they will do and what they will actually do when they have to act are often entirely different.
The following excerpt from Tide which also appeared in Reader’s Digest, January 1950, is as good an example as any illustrating the unreliability or meaninglessness of polling.
Sam Gill, research director of a New York advertising agency, reported the following results of a public-opinion survey:
| Question: | “Which of the following statements most closely coincides with your opinion of the Metallic Metals Act?” |
| Answers: | It would be a good move on the part of the U.S. (21.4 per cent).It would be a good thing but should be left to individual states (58.6 per cent). It is all right for foreign countries but should not be required here (15.7 per cent). |
| It is of no value at all (4.3 per cent). |
The percentages represent the answers of 70 per cent of the total; 30 per cent had no opinion. The National Metallic Metals Act existed only in the mind of the individual who planned the poll.
Still another factor that weakens the structure of marketing research based on polling methods is an unwillingness to give the true information. To a pollster’s question, “Have you borrowed money from a personal loan company?” a poll showed that no one had. But the loan company’s records revealed that all those interviewed had borrowed money.
Another example is a survey on what magazines people read. To the question, “What magazines do you read?” a poll indicated that the Atlantic Monthly had six times its actual circulation and that the pulp magazines, printed in the millions, had a negligible circulation. Obviously many of those questioned were unwilling to go on record as lowbrow even though they enjoyed reading “lowbrow” publications.
Even when the questions are accurately answered, we still cannot determine what kind of ad is the best. We can determine only which is the best of the ads being tested. In other words: If you do research to find out which of six ads is best, you may learn which is the best of the six, but not that the best of the six is the best that can be created.
We have conclusive evidence that marketing research of the polling type, based on conscious reactions, is not a reliable tool because: 1) people do not have the ability to give the right information, 2) people are not willing to give the right information, 3) only a predetermined number of units can be tested.
Psychoanalytical findings concerning the nature of the unconscious show how naive we have been in basing marketing research on the assumption that human beings always are able and willing to reveal their true feelings, or to predict their own behavior.
From psychoanalysis we learn that only a small proportion of the individual’s total experiences (or emotional life) is within his conscious grasp. Some of an individual’s experiences can be recalled by a casual association and some by special techniques, but a good part remains forever beyond the reach of the conscious mind.
We generally recognize that we forget much of our past. But difficult to accept is the knowledge that these presumably “forgotten” experiences are really not forgotten but remain in the unconscious where they continue to exert tremendous power over our behavior.
Conscious feelings and intentions, therefore, are often overwhelmed by forces hidden deep in the unconscious. It is the unconscious purpose rather than the intellectual reasoning processes that generally determines how an individual will behave. If marketing research, then, is to predict reliably what people will do, it must have procedures and techniques for discovering unconscious motives, purposes and needs.
Conscious and Unconscious Reactions
Because a person is not conscious of having seen an advertisement, it does not mean that the image of the advertisement is not impressed on the unconscious mind. Since the unconscious contains “images” from infancy, it certainly has no difficulty in housing an image that is a month or two old. We have no doubt that it is much easier to recall a recent experience than it is a childhood experience. Often the skill of a trained psychoanalyst is needed to bring forth into consciousness an individual’s early childhood experiences that lie hidden deep in the unconscious. But people normally recall recent experiences that have meaning to them.
When a person is asked to recall an ad he is asked to be conscious of it. But because he is not conscious of it does not mean that the ad did not have its effect on him. He may have been strongly and powerfully affected by the ad, yet completely unaware of it.
Also, a person may not see any reason, or he may have no incentive for making a special effort to answer the question factually. An individual may want to be polite to the extent of saying yes or no, but he may not have the necessary incentive to call forth conscious images through a process of association.
We need no research in order to learn that the average housewife does not go to the store to buy package designs. Consciously she buys meat, cheese, fish or fruit; only unconsciously does she buy the container. The average housewife will not agree with you if you tell her that she bought a product because of the colors on the package.
However, when the same bar of soap was placed in a store on the same shelf but in two different wrappers, one wrapper outsold the other by 160 per cent. I told thirty-two women that they bought the soap because of the wrapper. Some of them responded with unfriendly looks and others denied it. Some even disdained to answer the accusation.
When two hundred and ten persons were asked whether they bought magazines for the articles, the fiction or the ads, one hundred and twelve said articles; ninety-four said fiction; and four said ads. However, in spite of the common opinion that people are not interested in ads*, facts proved otherwise. During the war a magazine was offered a group of soldiers in two types of editions, the regular issue and a special overseas edition from which the ads were eliminated. Out of three hundred men only two wanted the overseas edition without the ads.
In other words, people are not aware that ads have much psychological and social significance to them. Consciously many people buy magazines for the fiction and nonfiction, unconsciously they buy certain magazines because of the ads. It is evident that to ask people whether they value the ads is meaningless and wasteful effort.
Another study showed that individuals who claimed that they were not influenced by advertising, unconsciously bought only widely advertised products. Their conscious minds rejected advertising but their unconscious behavior was influenced by it.
A number of experiments demonstrated how images emerged from the unconscious through