The Bellwether. Kyle Kondik

Anchored by Cleveland, this Rust Belt area is the state’s electoral powerhouse. It casts the most votes, both Democratic and Republican, in state elections, and it’s also the state’s most Democratic region. Its two-party voting (57 percent Democratic) in 2000–2012 most resembled New Jersey, a reliably Democratic mid-Atlantic state. That’s about six points more than the 51 percent going to the Democratic candidate in national two-party voting during the same period.

      Northwest: The northwest features the city of Toledo, which is Democratic, as well as a few swing counties and then a number of bedrock GOP areas. Its voting (51 percent Democratic) most resembles Nevada’s in recent elections, making it a swing region overall.

      Central: Franklin County (Columbus) is the only county in this region that’s very Democratic, but the state’s most populous county’s increasing lean toward the Party of Jackson makes the whole region competitive. It, too, is a swing region, but one that has been slightly less Democratic (49 percent) than the northwest over the last four elections, with voting that is most similar to Virginia’s.

      West: This small region based around Dayton is mostly conservative. At 57 percent Republican, its voting mirrors Louisiana’s.

      Southwest: Greater Cincinnati has long been the heart of Ohio Republicanism, even though Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is located, became a swing county in the 21st century. At an average of 58 percent Republican the past four elections, its voting is closest to Montana, a reliably Republican western state.