and South Africa? Given where the ANC finds itself today, what agenda is possible under the circumstances? The conditions under which Ramaphosa won the ANC presidency are not ideal for him to stamp his authority as leader of the party and as president of the country. He might have won the presidency, but he lost the power play. He was elected through the “fortune of others”, as Niccolò Machiavelli argued in The Prince (1532). Ramaphosa was carried to victory by a strange coalition of people whose intentions are far from clear. When David Mabuza, now deputy president, threw Ramaphosa a lifeline to win the contest against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the conditions for this arrangement – this strange victory – were not made clear, at least not to the general public. Could it be that Mabuza has a different agenda for the ANC and for the country?
When I attended the ANC elective conference at Nasrec in December 2017, it dawned on me that South Africa’s politics are far more complex than most of us are willing to admit. Viewing the ANC power contest there as a battle between two main factions, the Jacob Zuma faction and the anti-Zuma faction, could no longer help one in analysing what was at play in the ANC. Things had become much more complicated. What I observed at Nasrec was a clear indication that the ANC is moving past factional politics, and that the party is entering the era of interest group politics. It thus becomes important to understand the formation of interest groups within the ANC. Ramaphosa’s task ahead of him will be to navigate his way between special interests. This immediately raises the following questions: What’s in it for South Africans? What does Nelson Mandela’s nation stand to gain or lose as interest groups battle it out in the country? What are the agendas at play?
These questions cannot be answered with absolute certainty, and this book does not claim to give all the answers. But how Ramaphosa will likely come out of all this makes for an interesting discussion. Even more fascinating is how Ramaphosa’s skill in managing the competing agendas will impact upon democratic consolidation and economic progress in South Africa. This is the story I aim to tell in this book. Can Ramaphosa pull South Africa out of the quagmire after a decade of corruption and state capture under the Zuma regime? Can Ramaphosa save South Africa, as so many people desperately hope he can? Can he save the ANC? This is no easy task and the odds are stacked against him.
Ramaphosa needs the ANC in order to save South Africa. This means that he firstly has to resuscitate the ANC and get it out of ICU. Only then can he use the party to reach out to South Africans in an attempt to return the nation to its glory days. For Ramaphosa to be successful, the ANC needs to be willing to be saved, even before the nation can be asked to look towards the ANC for solutions to its ills. An ailing ANC which has become resistant to intervention may destroy Ramaphosa’s potential to save the country – that is, if we believe he has the potential in the first place. If the ANC refuses assistance from Ramaphosa, then the party will be of no more use to South Africans.
It would be naive to think of the Ramaphosa presidency as an isolated incident or as a “new dawn”. Rather, his presidency should be seen as another episode in the evolution of political leadership in post-apartheid South Africa. His presidency has been crafted as an alternative to Zuma’s decade of “all things gone wrong”. The mere idea that he is an alternative to Zuma implies he is somehow burdened by those years. Up till now, he has had to carefully work his way out of the burden of Zuma. He cannot simply get rid of all those within the ANC who supported Zuma, including some cabinet ministers. If he is seen to be purging Zuma supporters, he will be ousted from the party before the 2019 elections. He has to avoid making enemies.
Diplomacy is an art that Ramaphosa seems to be good at. He speaks eloquently and crafts his messages in a way that seems to give something to everybody. Diplomacy is, however, not the basis for making decisions; it is a way of communicating decisions that are already made. Ramaphosa still needs to make clear what his criteria are for saying yes or no to major policy issues. Thereafter he can go on to diplomatically explain the decisions he has made. President Ramaphosa has to be decisive and stern.
For the first time in post-apartheid South Africa, the ANC is led by someone who has not been in exile or in jail. Does this signal a different leadership culture? If so, what type of leadership style can we expect from Ramaphosa? More interestingly, will his approach to leadership be grounded on the internal logic of the ANC or will he seek to ground his leadership of the ANC in the broader society? Is the ANC ready to embrace a shift in the culture of leadership or will the party resist? The ANC is a hundred-year-old organisation which has passed through many phases, from leading the liberation movement to leading a democratic society. In those years, ANC members have insisted on living up to the traditions of the party, which also entail the idea of “democratic centralism” and discipline among cadres. The ANC has not allowed its leaders to demonstrate personal ambitions above the party.
Ramaphosa’s leadership is, however, also an expression of personal ambition. He has a colourful résumé and a depth and range of experience that is unusual: student leader, trade unionist, constitutional negotiator, mining tycoon. In all this, there is evidence of great personal ambition shown by someone who is constantly seeking to influence society by aligning himself with different forces at various points in time. He comes across as adaptable, complex and ambitious. He is not a traditional leader; he is a CV leader. Is the ANC willing to embrace such a man at its head? Judging by his appointment of special “investment envoys” to represent South Africa at the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in London in April 2018, Ramaphosa seems to be more interested in surrounding himself with people who have solid backgrounds. He appointed the market-trusted former finance minister Trevor Manuel and the former finance deputy minister Mcebisi Jonas, famous for refusing to accept a bribe from the Gupta family. The new president topped it with two respected private sector figures, Jacko Maree and Phumzile Langeni. He also appointed the well-known economist Trudi Makhaya as his economic adviser.
Being a product of the ANC could either enhance or damage Ramaphosa’s prospects. He took over an ANC that was already divided along ideological lines. He has to manage these divisions and make sure they do not corrode the economy and the state. The ANC that came out of the Nasrec conference has shown an appetite for radical economic policies. If Ramaphosa is unable to get the ANC to scale down on its populism, he will come across as having failed, especially in the eyes of the middle class and the private sector. If he is too successful in curbing the ANC’s enthusiasm for radical policies, he will be seen as having betrayed the historical mission of the ANC and abandoned the Freedom Charter. As someone who is understood to be a constitutionalist, Ramaphosa might be called upon to preside over a season of unconstitutional constitutional amendments, should the ANC attempt to amend the Constitution to get its way on policies. If he becomes part of this, Ramaphosa will destroy the reputation he made in constitutional negotiations during the transition to democracy in the early 1990s. If he can protect the Constitution against the ANC, Ramaphosa will cement his reputation as a man of principle.
The aim of this book is to suggest how the story of the presidency of Ramaphosa will unfold. He is a man who says little, and says it well. His eloquence is refreshing, but his ability not to commit to a political position is concerning. This leads me to ask: What type of leadership does South Africa need at this point in time? Do we need someone who has a clear ideological disposition? Or do we need someone who will coordinate action and return the nation to the table for discussions?
I do not believe that South Africa now requires a grand vision shown in the form of an ideology. What I believe is required is someone who can coordinate attempts to clean up the mess we have got into, steer us through the muddle. Ramaphosa is a real coordinator. Will he succeed in coordinating South Africa out of the current impasse?
1.
The Battle of Nasrec
The 54th national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) – held in December 2017 in the Nasrec conference centre in Johannesburg – was the most fiercely and openly contested elective conference yet held in the history of the organisation. The battle that took place here for the soul of the party revealed the worst that could come out of the ANC. Money is reported to have been openly used to persuade members of the branches to vote for particular candidates.1 The process of nominating