over the last decade. Doyal, can we meet in your suite tomorrow morning?”
Doyal silently acquiesced. Ibrahim immediately excused himself to call Wang Shu, not wanting to risk a change of heart by either Ambassador.
Panday and Doyal looked at each other, wondering if they had already gone too far. Ibrahim’s confidence about Wang seemed to satisfy them, though they still worried that he was a bit too rash. More experienced, with more professional wounds, Panday and Doyal understood that this effort could easily be disastrous for their careers.
The two senior Ambassadors would pay a higher price than Ibrahim, because they had earned higher professional status. Moreover, being older, they would have less time to recover from a career setback. Probably they would be finished, with no future opportunities, if this crazy scheme exploded in their faces.
“So far, Ibrahim has managed to avoid getting tarnished by some no-win personal or political controversy that damaged his reputation and career,” Doyal pointed out, “and he’s never suffered through the repeated policy setbacks that would chasten his enthusiasm for this high-risk strategy. I wonder whether we should follow him down this primrose path.
“By the way, he seems to know this Wang Shu quite well, and to have unlimited confidence in her. Do you think that is more than a purely professional judgment?”
Panday shrugged. “Who knows? Look, Doyal, the chances of this ever getting anywhere are very small. Do we really think Singapore will give us $10 billion? Or that some other State will allow us to use its territory as a base for these experiments? I don’t, but so far, I think we should give it a try. It’s a moral and professional responsibility to our people.”
They remained anxious, but in the end, they had let Ibrahim proceed. Ultimately, they saw no alternative that could save their countries.
Chapter 7
Phuket
Ibrahim rushed back to his room and telephoned Wang Shu. It was a short, businesslike conversation.
“Good afternoon, Wang. This is Ibrahim. I trust you are finding the AOSIS meeting worth attending.
“I’d like you to meet informally with Ambassadors Panday and Doyal and me to discuss a special project we are hoping to get started, with Singapore’s help. Can you meet with us some time tomorrow?”
“I would be happy to meet with those distinguished Ambassadors,” Wang instinctively replied, recognizing the value of the opportunity.
“Excellent. Ambassador Doyal has a suite suitable for our discussion. Number 501 in the Casa Blanca Hotel. How about 11:00 am tomorrow?”
“That should be fine. See you there,” she replied, and quickly ended the call. Wang had many questions, but they could come later.
The meeting began with introductions and coffee. Wang deferentially acknowledged the honor of meeting the two senior Ambassadors. They reciprocated the kind words, expressing their pleasure that she was willing to meet with them on a Sunday morning.
The substantive conversation opened with a request from Ibrahim that the discussion stay completely confidential, whether she agreed with or approved of what the three were about to reveal, or not. Wang found it an unusual request to precede an informal discussion. She responded cautiously, but lightly, “I guess if it’s not nuclear war or a program to accelerate global warming and rising seas, I can keep a secret for as long as you can. That will have to do.”
Ibrahim glanced at his colleagues to gauge their reactions, then continued, “Thank you. We trust your word. You heard Dr. Hartquist’s speech at the AOSIS Conference last year, so you understand what our countries and the world are facing. The difference is that our countries are desperate. We’re already the drowning man that Dr. Hartquist has described in her speeches and writings. If we don’t begin taking real, physical action now, our lands and people may all may be irreversibly lost before the end of the decade.
“We believe Dr. Hartquist gave us the only possible answer: physical intervention in the earth’s climate system now to delay the potential for disruptive, catastrophic climate changes. We believe that the initiation of an SRM project creating a chemical veil in the tropopause is essential and urgent. We are aware of the environmental and political risks, and we will proceed as carefully as possible. But we cannot wait to obtain an international consensus, which may never emerge.
“The cost of the project is small by comparison to defense expenditures around the world, but our three developing countries cannot afford the ongoing expenses of this kind of operation. Equally important, we could not spend such sums, which are large compared to our national budgets, without a public discussion in our parliaments. That would be the death of the entire effort. We need the help of Singapore, and your assistance to get that help.”
Wang Shu sat up in her chair, her almond eyes wide. “Are you saying you would conduct this whole project in secret? Is that even possible? Won’t creating a veil require constant flights into the troposphere? What happens when the US, or China or Russia, discovers unknown planes buzzing around the troposphere, releasing unknown substances?”
As quickly as Wang asked these questions, she realized there could be no satisfactory answers. Ibrahim offered a sanguine hope: “I expect that a small additional number of commercial aircraft flying from a remote location at a very high altitude will simply be ignored by military personnel focused on instantaneous response to a massive surprise attack. They’ll just be hidden in plain sight,” he suggested.
Wang appeared doubtful.
Panday joined in gently, seeking to calm her fears. “We fully understand the risk you have identified so perceptively, but our islands are drowning right now. As you know, AOSIS has tried publicly and vigorously to get action through the standard international processes, without success. We can’t even get a small-scale international research program underway. If we try to proceed publicly, we’ll be pushed by the opponents right back to the Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties, which means paralysis.”
Wang Shu remained profoundly skeptical, but she wanted to know more before saying anything. “How much money are you talking about?”
Ibrahim replied, “We think no more than US$10 billion over the first three years, which would get the project far enough along to have useful data to show. We hope it will provide some degree of cooling as well. Professor Feith wrote a decade ago that he thought US $3 billion would be enough, but an upward adjustment for inflation and some contingency reserve would be prudent.
“We can promise you that we will work with you to disguise the sources of the money. Singapore won’t be the only contributor, though we expect it would be the largest. We’ll set up appropriately anonymous shell entities to give, receive, and spend the project money. We personally pledge our best efforts to ensure that the arrangements preserve Singapore’s deniability. Our own careers are on the line as well if this effort becomes public prematurely.”
Wang stopped to think, evaluating both the overall project’s diplomatic risks and possible mechanisms by which the transfer of funds could evade detection. She also considered whether she had legal or policy authority to make any commitment. The three “conspirators” held their breath in the silence. Wang’s answer could be the make-or-break moment for this fantasy.
Finally, she spoke. “I don’t have authority to make any financial commitment at all. My instructions for this meeting only address AOSIS policy matters that are coming up for a vote. I question whether my government would be willing to get wrapped up in this irregular venture at any price. But I can tell you this. I will recommend that Singapore either provide all the money or none. Singapore won’t want any financial partners.
“The more parties involved in this process, the greater the uncertainty whether other partners will all ante up their shares. Worse, the more partners, the greater the risk that we will all read about this ‘evil conspiracy’ in the New York Times, with names and dates and bank accounts. A secret widely shared rarely stays a secret…
“Speaking