reminiscent of Talmudic scholarship. The content of the Talmud includes not only the original scripture but also interpretative comments on the scripture by authoritative sources (classical rabbis). Their comments have gained such respect that they are traditionally published along with the original scripture for comment by later rabbis, whose comments in turn have become part of the intellectual tradition. The original scripture, along with all the authoritative comments, is collectively called the Talmud, and it is the basis of a classical Jewish education to this day.
A similar effect happens with informal models. The original model is appropriate in some context, but as its use expands beyond that context, further models are required to provide common context to explicate the shared meaning. But if this further exposition is also informal, then there is the risk that its meaning will not be clear, so further modeling must be done to clarify that. This results in heavily layered models, in which the meaning of the terms is always subject to further interpretation. It is the inherent ambiguity of natural language at each level that makes the next layer of commentary necessary until the degree of ambiguity is “good enough” that no more levels are needed. When it is possible to choose words that are evocative and have considerable agreement, this process converges much more quickly.
Human communication, as a goal for modeling, allows it to play a role in the ongoing collection of human knowledge. The levels of communication can be quite sophisticated, including the collection of information used to interpret other information. In this sense, human communication is the fundamental requirement for building a Semantic Web. It allows people to contribute to a growing body of knowledge and then draw from it. But communication is not enough; to empower a web of human knowledge, the information in a model needs to be organized in such a way that it can be useful to a wide range of consumers.
2.2 Explanation and Prediction
Models are used to organize human thought in the form of explanations. When we understand how a phenomenon results from other basic principles, we gain a number of advantages. Not least is the feeling of confidence that we have actually understood it; people often claim to “have a grasp on” or “have their head around” an idea when they finally understand it. Explanation plays a major role in this sort of understanding. Explanation also assists in memory; it is easier to remember that putting a lid on a flaming pot can quench the flame if one knows the explanation that fire requires air to burn. Most important for the context of the Semantic Web, explanation makes it easier to reuse a model in whole or in part; an explanation relates a conclusion to more basic principles. Understanding how a pot lid quenches a fire can help one understand how a candle snuffer works. Interpretability and explanation are vital for establishing trust in a model and to effectively support decision-making. You are more likely to trust my model, if I can provide results you can interpret and explanations so that you can understand why the model is appropriate. Interpretability and explanation are the keys to understanding when a model is applicable and when it is not.
Closely related to this aspect of a model is the idea of prediction. When a model provides an adequate explanation of a phenomenon, it can also be used to make predictions. This aspect of models is what makes their use central to the scientific method, where falsification of predictions made by models forms the basis of the methodology of inquiry.
Explanation and prediction typically require models with a good deal more formality than is usually required for human communication. An explanation relates a phenomenon to “first principles”; these principles, and the rules by which they are related, do not depend on interpretation by the consumer but instead are in some objective form that stands outside the communication. Such an objective form, and the rules that govern how it works, is called a formalism.
Formal models are the bread and butter of mathematical modeling, in which very specific rules for calculation and symbol manipulation govern the structure of a mathematical model and the valid ways in which one item can refer to another. Explanations come in the form of proofs, in which steps from premises (stated in some formalism) to conclusions are made according to strict rules of transformation for the formalism. Formal models are used in many human intellectual endeavors, wherever precision and objectivity are required.
Formalisms can also be used for predictions. Given a description of a situation in some formalism, the same rules that govern transformations in proofs can be used to make predictions. We can explain the trajectory of an object thrown out of a window with a formal model of force, gravity, speed, and mass, but given the initial conditions of the object thrown, we can also compute, and thus predict, its trajectory.
Formal prediction and explanation allow us to evaluate when a model is applicable. Furthermore, the formalism allows that evaluation to be independent of the listener. One can dispute the result that 2 + 2 = 4 by questioning just what the terms 2, 4, +, and = mean, but once people agree on what they mean, they cannot (reasonably) dispute that this formula is correct.
Formal modeling therefore has a very different social dynamic than informal modeling; because there is an objective reference to the model (the formalism), there is no need for the layers of interpretation that result in Talmudic modeling. Instead of layers and layers of interpretation, the buck stops at the formalism.
As we shall see, the Semantic Web standards include a small variety of modeling formalisms. Because they are formalisms, modeling in the Semantic Web need not become a process of layering interpretation on interpretation. Also, because they are formalisms, it is possible to couch explanations in the Semantic Web in the form of proofs and to use that proof mechanism to make predictions. This aspect of Semantic Web models goes by the name inference and it will be discussed in detail in Chapter 7.
2.3 Mediating Variability
In any Web setting, variability is to be expected and even embraced. The dynamics of the network effect require the ability to represent a variety of opinions. A good model organizes those opinions so that the things that are common can be represented together, while the things that are distinct can be represented as well.
Let’s take the case of Pluto as an example. From 1930 until 2006, it was considered to be a planet by astronomers and astrologers alike. After the redefinition of planet by the IAU in 2006, Pluto was no longer considered to be a planet but more specifically a dwarf planet by the IAU and by astronomers who accept the IAU as an authority [Zielinski and Kumar 2006]. Astrologers, however, chose not to adopt the IAU convention, and they continued to consider Pluto a planet. Some amateur astronomers, mostly for nostalgic reasons, also continued to consider Pluto a planet. How can we accommodate all of these variations of opinion on the Web?
One way to accommodate them would be to make a decision as to which one is “preferred” and to control the Web so that only that position is supported. This is the solution that is most commonly used in corporate data centers, where a small group or even a single person acts as the database administrator and decides what data are allowed to live in the corporate database. This solution is not appropriate for the Web because it does not allow for the Anyone can say Anything about Any topic (AAA) Slogan (see Chapter 1) that leads to the network effect.
Another way to accommodate these different viewpoints would be to simply allow each one to be represented separately, with no reference to one another at all. It would be the responsibility of the information consumer to understand how these things relate to one another and to make any connections as appropriate. This is the basis of an informal approach, and it indeed describes the state of the hypertext Web as it is today. A Web search for Pluto will turn up a wide array of articles, in which some call it a planet (for example, astrological ones or astronomical ones that have not been updated), some call it a dwarf planet (IAU official web sites), and some that are still debating the issue. The only way a reader can come to understand what is common among these things—the notion of a planet, of the solar system, or even of Pluto itself—is through reader interpretation.
How can a model help sort this out? How can a model describe what is common about the astrological notion of a planet, the twentieth-century astronomical notion of a planet, and the post-2006 notion of a planet? The model must