of a disease that jumped from animals to humans, known as a zoonotic disease. COVID-19 likely came from a bat; AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Ebola, West Nile and Lyme disease also originated in animals. Zoonotic disease outbreaks have been occurring more often since the 1940s as an expanding human population pushes deeper into forests for hunting, agriculture, mining and housing. Demand for exotic meat also brings live wildlife to food markets, where they can transmit viruses to other animals and humans. How to prevent the next pandemic is a matter of vigorous debate: Some scientists are pushing for more research into animal viruses, while others stress stopping human activities, such as deforestation, that can spur contagion. Conservation groups urge a ban on the wildlife trade, but critics say that will only encourage a black market. Some researchers and environmentalists say preserving wilderness and biological diversity is key to preventing more outbreaks.
International Political Economy
European Union at a Crossroads
Amid the United Kingdom’s Brexit crisis and a surge in populism throughout Europe, the 28-nation European Union (EU) is facing renewed questions about its future. Nationalist-populist governments rule in Italy, Hungary, Poland and Greece, and populist parties are posing stiff challenges in France and Germany, the EU’s most powerful members. A slowing economy and worsening relations with the Trump administration, which calls the EU a foe on trade, present additional challenges to the Union. But many political analysts believe the EU remains strong, noting that the U.K.’s expected departure from the federation has chastened foes of European integration and led them to drop their drives for Brexit-style secessions in other countries. The EU also has drastically cut illegal migration from Africa and the Mideast—a major source of populists’ anger. Nevertheless, many experts say next month’s elections for the EU’s Parliament will be crucial. They predict a strong showing for populists, who would be in a position to keep the EU from becoming more powerful.
US Foreign Policy in Transition
After more than 70 years as the standard-bearer of multilateral engagement and constructive diplomacy, the United States is undergoing a dramatic foreign policy shift that has led some to question whether the nation is giving up its global authority. Departing from the approach of previous presidents, who tended to cooperate with allies through multilateral agreements to promote democracy, free trade and environmental protection, President Trump is championing an “America First” policy aimed at protecting U.S. jobs and interests. Preferring to rely on his instincts and personal rapport rather than professional diplomats, he has ended U.S. participation in several major international treaties, praised authoritarian leaders and waged a trade war against key economic partners. Trump’s supporters say he is using America’s economic and political might to its advantage and trying to prod uncooperative allies—particularly in Europe—to do more to protect their own security interests. But critics say Trump’s conduct has isolated the United States internationally and undermined the nation’s claim to moral leadership.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Dozens of countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and elsewhere are embracing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a $1 trillion program aimed at building a vast system of transportation, energy and telecommunications networks linking China to resources and markets worldwide. So far, 117 nations have received more than $400 billion in loans and investments from Beijing, whose state-owned construction companies are building roads, bridges, power plants and other projects. Chinese President Xi Jinping says the program seeks to help China and other countries strengthen their economies. But the massive infrastructure project—the largest in history—has sparked concerns that China is trapping poor nations in debt with the goal of forcing them to surrender strategic assets and that Xi’s ultimate objective is to create a new world order in which China’s norms and priorities prevail. To counter the BRI, the United States is readying a $60 billion development program that it argues will help recipient nations grow without becoming burdened with debts they cannot repay.
Hidden Money
Tax evasion and money laundering are generating major headaches and revenue losses for governments across the globe. In this shadow economy, wealthy investors and others use offshore tax havens and shell companies to hide money and avoid tax collectors. Drug cartels and other criminals, meanwhile, launder money by buying real estate or putting illicit gains in legitimate businesses. According to one estimate, the amount of hidden money worldwide tops $10 trillion. In response, experts are urging more cooperation among governments. The United States is seeking to collect more information on the overseas financial accounts of U.S. citizens, and other nations want Washington to share more data about their citizens’ accounts in U.S. banks. But the Trump administration opposes a proposal that would require multinational companies to disclose their earnings in each country and pay a global minimum tax. And with U.S. states competing to attract businesses, the United States has become one of the largest tax havens in the world.
Supply Chains at Risk
President Trump’s approach to trade policy—using import tariffs and other punitive measures as leverage when negotiating international agreements—is forcing many companies to restructure their global supply chains, which often took decades to develop. International trade rules established after World War II, combined with technological breakthroughs such as robotics, cloud computing and software, have resulted in intricately connected worldwide supply chains that have cut costs and boosted profits. The shifts also have cost thousands of U.S. manufacturing jobs. Trump says his strategy will change that, but many companies and economists say imposing tariffs at levels unseen since the 1930s will not rein in rivals such as China, the world’s second-biggest economy and America’s biggest trading partner in 2018. As U.S. companies scramble to find non-Chinese suppliers and brace for lower profits, they warn that the cost of the tariffs eventually will mean higher consumer prices. And China has retaliated by imposing its own tariffs on U.S. goods or halting purchases of American farm products, triggering fears of a prolonged “cold” trade war between the two countries.
Religious and Human Rights
Global Migration
The world is witnessing the highest numbers of migrants on record, nearly 272 million in 2019, more than triple the number in 1970. Advocates of immigration restrictions say migrants steal jobs and sometimes abuse a system designed to provide asylum for the truly persecuted. But human rights advocates say nations are shirking their responsibility to provide refuge to those experiencing persecution and violence. Citing a broken system in which asylum-seekers sometimes disappear into the United States, the Trump administration is limiting those who can seek asylum. It also is taking aggressive steps to end what President Trump calls a “very serious crisis” at the U.S.-Mexico border. Migrant advocacy groups say Trump has manufactured a crisis, and statistics show illegal immigration from Mexico is in a long-term decline. Governments often seek to stem migration by providing aid to improve the economies of origin countries. Experts say the solution is not so simple, because it takes at least a generation before rising income encourages people to remain at home.
Global Protest Movements
Protest movements swept the globe last year—so widely that some experts said there were more protests, and more protesters, in 2019 than at any other time in history. Millions of citizens in dozens of countries took to the streets to protest a host of grievances, ranging from higher consumer prices to government corruption and social inequality. Thousands died; national leaders were forced from office. Experts differ on whether the wave of protests is a sign of failing democracy or of healthy citizen empowerment. But the deadly global spread of the coronavirus this year halted most street protests, at least temporarily, as governments enforced social distancing restrictions in hopes of preventing further infections—and perhaps in some cases in hopes of breaking the protests’ momentum. Many movements took their campaigns online, but how successfully remains to be seen. Social media enables protesters to organize effectively and