position, performance. I sorted the breakout price into the yearly high–low range and mapped performance on top of it. The table shows that breakouts occurring near the yearly low do better than those near the yearly high. It suggests this chart pattern does well with bottom‐fishing strategies (buy low, sell high). Avoid momentum trading this pattern (buy high, sell higher).
Throwbacks and pullbacks. Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about two‐thirds of the time. Price leaves the pattern for 6 days until it reaches the apex, either rising or falling 6% during the journey (depending on the breakout direction), and the stock returns to the breakout in another 6 days, for a 12‐day roundtrip.
Table 9.3 Cumulative Failure Rates
| Maximum Price Rise or Decline (%) | Up Breakout | Down Breakout |
|---|---|---|
| 5 (breakeven) | 83 or 15% | 129 or 28% |
| 10 | 71 or 28% | 106 or 52% |
| 15 | 62 or 39% | 62 or 65% |
| 20 | 32 or 45% | 44 or 75% |
| 25 | 40 or 52% | 28 or 81% |
| 30 | 30 or 58% | 22 or 86% |
| 35 | 24 or 62% | 19 or 90% |
| 50 | 56 or 72% | 35 or 98% |
| 75 | 52 or 82% | 10 or 100% |
| Over 75 | 101 or 100% | 0 or 100% |
Table 9.4 Breakout and Post‐Breakout Statistics
| Description | Up Breakout | Down Breakout |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout direction | 55% up | 45% down |
| Performance of breakouts occurring near the 12‐month low (L), middle (M), or high (H) | L 58%, M 43%, H 40% | L –17%, M –14%, H –12% |
| Throwbacks/pullbacks occurrence | 68% | 63% |
| Average time to throwback/pullback peaks | 6% in 6 days | –6% in 6 days |
| Average time to throwback/pullback ends | 12 days | 12 days |
| Average rise/decline for patterns with throwbacks/pullbacks | 39% | –13% |
| Average rise/decline for patterns without throwbacks/pullbacks | 50% | –16% |
| Percentage price resumes trend | 72% | 48% |
| Performance with breakout day gap | 48% | –16% |
| Performance without breakout day gap | 42% | –14% |
| Average gap size | $0.50 | $0.40 |
Notice that performance improves if a throwback or pullback does not occur.
After a throwback or pullback completes, we see that price resumes trending upward after an upward breakout but struggles to drop after a downward breakout. Be careful shorting this pattern after a downward breakout. A pullback may see price drop as far as it's going to.
Gaps. Regardless of the breakout direction, a breakout day gap helps performance. That's good news. Why? Because I measured performance from the opening price the day after a gap to the ultimate high or low. Thus, you can buy into the situation after you see a gap and participate in the better‐performance party.
Table 9.5 shows size‐related statistics.
Height. For both breakout directions, broadening patterns taller than the median height performed better than did their shorter counterparts.
To use this finding, measure the height of the pattern from top to bottom and divide by the breakout price. If the result is higher than the median listed in the table for the associated breakout direction, then the pattern is tall.
Width. Wide patterns performed better than narrow ones. Take the difference between the end date and start date of the pattern and compare it to the median width in the table. Wide patterns will exceed the median.
Height and width combinations. Tall and wide patterns outperform all other combinations. As a general rule for this pattern, avoid tall and narrow patterns with upward breakouts and avoid short and narrow patterns with downward breakouts.
Table 9.6 shows volume‐related statistics.
Volume trend. I used linear regression to determine the volume trend. I found that it trends upward in almost two of every three patterns.
Rising/Falling volume. Upward breakouts don't show a big performance difference between volume trending upward or downward. Downward breakouts tend to prefer falling volume for better performance.
Table 9.5 Size Statistics
| Description | Up Breakout | Down Breakout |
|---|---|---|
| Tall pattern performance | 45% | –17% |
| Short pattern performance | 40% | –12% |
| Median height as a percentage of breakout price | 10.6% | 11.4% |
| Narrow pattern performance | 40% | –13% |
| Wide pattern performance | 46% | –16% |
| Median width | 50 days | 48 days |