John E. Boylan

Intermittent Demand Forecasting


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discussed in Chapter 6.

      2.3.3 Summary

      Before setting stock levels for intermittent demand items, a decision should be taken as to whether an item should be stocked at all. In some situations, keeping zero stock is not an option. Otherwise, an evaluation of demand is required to determine whether the item should be stocked. Such decisions are typically based on a forecast of the mean demand (discussed in Chapter 6), requiring no estimates of the variability of demand (discussed in Chapter 7), which may be required when deciding on replenishment quantities.

      The ordering cost is usually a fixed cost per order, reflecting such things as raising invoices, cost of the personnel working in relevant organisational departments (e.g. purchasing, supplier management), and transportation and logistics costs, depending on whether customers, suppliers, or both assume such expenses. The true ordering costs sometimes depend on the size of the replenishment orders. For example, if logistics and transportation costs are shared between customers and suppliers, then a large order would attract a higher cost than a smaller one. However, these costs are customarily assumed fixed for modelling purposes.

      Different stock control policies balance ordering, holding, and backorder costs in different ways, depending on the priorities and constraints set in the system, resulting in different decisions as to how much to stock and how often to replenish. The policies most relevant to managing intermittent demand inventories are discussed in Section 2.5. In this section, we focus on two precursors of the operation of any policy, namely:

      1 How often an accurate indication is available of the stock levels for a particular item (which depends on how the stock status is maintained).

      2 How often a test for reordering is made, to determine whether an order should be placed or not.

      These issues constitute fundamental decisions in inventory management, and are integral to the selection of an appropriate stock rule.

      2.4.1 How Should Stock Records be Maintained?

      With regard to the first question, there are only two ways of ‘posting’ the stock status records. One is to add receipts and to subtract sales as they occur. In this case, each transaction triggers an immediate updating of the status and, consequently, this type of control is known as ‘transactions reporting’ (Silver et al. 2017) or as a continuous recording system. The second method of updating the stock status records is to do it periodically so that an interval of time elapses between the moments at which the stock level is updated.

      It is important to consider the relationship between continuous recording of transactions and continuous review of inventory. It is certainly true that we cannot have continuous review without continuous recording. However, a continuous recording of each transaction does not necessarily mean that there will be a continuous review of the stock requirements. Porteus (1985, p. 145) commented, ‘What really matters is not how the inventory levels are monitored but the relationship between recognising that an order should be placed, placing the order, and receipt of that order. Many, if not most, transactions reporting systems are equivalent to periodic review systems.’ The same is true at the time of writing, over 30 years later. For example, if the inventory records are up to date online continuously but the orders to a given supplier are issued at the end of the day (or at the end of any unit time period) then the system is one of periodic review with inventory levels being reviewed once a day (or once per time period). Transactions reporting systems are often referred to as continuous review systems although, strictly speaking, they are not the same thing.

      There are two fundamental differences between continuous and periodic review systems. These differences relate to the following: (i) what triggers a new test for reordering and (ii) the time interval over which uncertainties in demand need to be taken into account.

Schematic illustration of the periodic review and continuous review systems.

      The second source of uncertainty relates to the passage of time during which uncertain demand poses a risk of a stockout. This time lapse differs between continuous and periodic review systems. For continuous review, it is the time